March 1, 2011

Day Trading Morning Prep Gold, Crude Oil, Dollar Index, Euro, E-mini Russell Futures

‘We are what we repeatedly do.  Excellence, therefore, is not an act, but a habit’ – Aristotle
Let’s begin our morning routine with the economic news for today’s trading session.
8:20 Gold & Currencies OPEN
9:00 Crude Oil OPEN
9:30 US Market OPEN
10:00 Ben Bernanke Speaks
11:00 Transition into Lunch
11:30 European Close / Live Webinar in our Trade Room

Looking at the news this morning we have the testimony of Ben Bernanke in front of congress at 10am est, and we’ve had news from Saudi Arabia and Libya this morning regarding crude oil.

With all of our news @ 10am est this morning its tough to tell what this market will look like AFTER 10am, but we know we will see some action in the pre-market, so lets be ready.

Lets look at the charts we’re watching this moring.

The dollar index chopped around at the lows on Monday, and this moring we can see much of the same.  The key is to remember the Dollar Index Futures Correlation when using this market.
If the dollar pushes new lows we are looking for buying opportunities, if it makes new highs we look to be sellers on the markets we trade most.
Crude Oil Futures
Crude Oil futures continue to trade in a Wedge Pattern, and just like we saw on Monday, we are trading at the lows and the middle of this wedge.
We can see three things to watch on crude oil today:
  • Wedge Pattern in yellow trend lines
  • Price channel in blue trend lines
  • Prev HOD and Prev LOD

Lets take the wedge first, we want to Buy the lows, sell the highs, and avoid the middle.  As you can see we are trading close to 98.00 which has been identified as the middle of the wedge, so we need to beware.

I would rather buy the lows of 96.37 and sell the highs of 99.00 of this wedge, rather than try to trade in the middle.

Then we can see the price channel in blue trend lines, this is a bullish price pattern with higher highs and higher lows.

We want to buy the lows of this price channel, so looking to buy at support of 96.82, 96.37,97.00, and 97.50.  Sell the highs of the channel around 100.48, 101.00, 99.96

And lastly, keep an eye on the PHOD and PLOD.  These levels are just above today’s HOD and just below today’s LOD.  Look to buy the PLOD and look to sell the PHOD as excellent trading opportunities.

Gold Futures have recently jumped to new highs and returned to its bullish price channel.
We can see three things to consider today on gold:
  • Price Channel in Pink trend lines
  • Major Resistance overhead
  • Previous High of Day

The most obvious thing we see on gold is the price channel in pink  trend line.  We want to wait to buy pullbacks at support to enter long on the way up inside this price channel.

Look to sell the highs, take profit at resistance when trading with this channel.

With the dollar index dropping this morning, we can assume gold will attempt to test the Highs of 1425.2, so look to sell the resistance first, then lookng to buy a pullback if 1425 becomes support.

Dont forget about the PHOD as well.  Chances are high that gold will pullback off these highs of 1422 and test the previous day’s HOD at 1417.0.

Watch for a 2step pattern on a faster timeframe for entry long around 1417 up to 1418.5, will have to wait for the pattern and our entry rules to confirm.

The Euro currency futures are looking sloppy and confused for direction at the same highs from last friday and monday.
We see three things to consider on the euro this morning:
  • Narrow Price wedge in yellow and blue trend lines
  • Sideways market from 3854 down to 3700
  • Price channel in blue trend lines

My first concern is the narrow price wedge using both the major trend line in yellow from overhead and the minor trend line in blue coming from below.  I would prefer to trade the lows and the highs of the wedge, but this wedge is very narrow so we want to wait for price to break the new highs or lows first.

Keep an eye on the  Fake-out breakout  of the wedge

 if price breaks new highs, i will look for the FAILURE of that break and then sell the break down into the wedge again.  We look for the these always when trading wedges.

Next we see the sideways range, sell the highs of 3854 and buy the lows of 3700.  Beware trading in the middle, around 3780 because it will be choppier than at the highs or lows.

Last we have the bullish price channel, which means we want to buy the lows as support, take profit on long positions at the highs, and then look to sell at the highs resistance.

Its easiest to use 2step Price reversal patterns with faster timeframes for entries on this 34range price channel, so keep an eye on those when you see price approach the highs or the lows of the channel.

E-mini Russell Futures

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