June 30, 2011

Why didn’t I read the morning prep? Still hit my goal..the hard way!

Disclaimer
———————————————-
SchoolOfTrade.com and United Business Servicing, Inc. are not registered investment or trading advisers. The services and content provided by SchoolOfTrade.com and United Business Servicing, Inc. are for educational purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice in any way. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Futures and Options trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. CFTC RULE 4.41 – These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or-over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown. Testimonials may not be representative of the experience of other clients. Testimonials are not a guarantee of future performance or success. No compensation is ever paid in exchange for any testimonials. Testimonials have not been independently verified.
———————————————-

High Percentage trades come at the high % time of the day, with a high % pattern at a high % location.

–          Time
–          Location
–          Pattern
If these are all high percentage than I will take the trade with confidence.
845am est
We see jobless claims rise again, and CAD GDP comes out flat, and the markets react sluggishly.
Lets review the dollar index this morning.
–          Medium term bear price channel
–          Short term bull price channel
–          Market is very slow
This tells me that we need be patient and wait for the dollar to pick up speed.  This will help the other markets move as well.
Day traders pay most attention to the short term trend on the US Dollar Index, which is currently a bull trend.
Rising prices on the dollar right now may change to a sideways range, so we will watch this closely.
Sideways Range =
–          Flat trigger line
–          Double-tops / bottoms
–          Failure to make new highs or lows
–          Trading at the OPEN of the day
–          Trading in the middle of the range
How do we use this information to make money today?
–          If the dollar makes new highs I now want to sell at resistance and sell retracements on the markets I trade most.
–          If the dollar cannot make new highs or lows (sideways) we then trade inside the range on the markets we trade.  Buy the lows, sell the highs, avoid the middles and fake-out breakouts.
–          If the dollar makes new lows, we then look to buy at support and buy pullbacks on the markets we trade.
Dollar Correlation can break down with 2 scenarios:
–          Fear
–          Low volume
900am est
Let’s review the crude oil futures using the 89range chart.
–          We’ve broken above the highs of the long term bear price channel
–          We’re trading in a sideways range from 95.85 down to 92.80
–          The BMT is above us 95.30 (sloppy area)
–          Momentum looks ‘confused’ right in the middle of the chart.
Now lets use these major levels along with a faster timeframe to find the best places to trade this morning.
My 34range chart shows us…
–          Bull price channel (medium)
–          Bear Price Channel (short term)
–          Inside day
–          Price Wedge
–          Sideways Range
How do we make money with this?  Be prepared for anything we get today.
If prices RISE on crude oil:
–          Im selling resistance levels first, then looking to buy pullbacks with higher highs
–          Inside day tells me to sell the highs and trade inside the current range, so I will be very selective with trading breakouts.
–          Bull price channel says to buy pullbacks with new highs
–          The short term bear price channel tells us to sell the highs of the channel, and if we break below 94.00 we can then get more aggressive with selling short.  Right now we need to make sure we don’t sell into the support from the bull channel.
–          Avoid 95.00 and the OPEN 95.07
–          Sell the wedge highs 95.36, 95.44, 95.65, 95.84 PHOD
–          I will then buy pullbacks when the resistance turns into support looking to break to new highs.
If price FALLS on crude oil:
–          Im buying at support and selling retracements with new lower lows
–          I don’t sell the lows, sell retracements.
–          Inside day tells me to buy the lows and avoid the fake-out breakout
–          Bull channel tells me to buy at the channel lows
–          Bear channel tells me to sell channel highs and buy channel lows
–          Buying 94.38, the LOD 94.15, avoid 94.00
–          Buying the channel lows at 93.85 for both channels
–          Price will be drawn down to the BMT 93.11 and this will be an excellent profit target, but a horrible place to enter so avoid this area.
–          Avoid 93.00 BRN
–          And buy the PLOD 92.81, 92.68
930am est
We have a double top on crude on the 34r chart, this tells me to buy at major support.
94.38, 94.32, 94.15, 94.00
Lets review our Gold…
We use our 89range chart to see the most important price levels to work with today:
–          Sideways Range from 1515.0 down to 91.0
–          Price Wedge, at the lows
–          Slow and sloppy
Now lets use our 34range to see the most important price levels to trade with today.
–          Inside day
–          Bull price channel
–          Price Wedge
How do I use this to make profit?
If price rises:
–          Selling resistance first, then buying pullbacks
–          Selling the wedge highs 13.2
–          Avoid the open13.6
–          Avoid the BMT 14.5
–          Sell the PHOD 14.8
–          Sell the highs of the bull price channel 18.0
–          Buying pullbacks as we get new higher highs, be selective with breakouts until we get above the PHOD 14.8
If price falls:
–          Im buying at support, then selling retracements with new lower lows
–          Im buying the lows of the range and the channel 08.4,
–          Buy the LOD 06.3
–          Buy the PLOD 03.7
–          Buy the lows of the wedge 03.6
–          Avoid the 1500 big round number
–          As price falls im selling retracements with new lower lows, but be selective with this inside day, fake-out breakouts will occur.
–         
950am est
We have a double top on gold, so looking to buy at major support.
We took the short off the highs on crude oil for an easy winner.
1000am
The markets are very sloppy, nothing moving, and we focus on selling the highs and buying the lows.
1030am est
We see new lows on the gold so I try to buy the lows and it fails.
We then make a new lower low, I sell this with wave short and it too fails.
Who’s in charge?
1100am est
Dollar trading sideways and VERY slow.
Gold breaks back above the PLOD so we’re rising off the wedge lows and getting into position for a wave long above the 89r trigger line.
1125am est
We prepare for the European close before 1130am and we see everything very sloppy.
Crude tested the highs and now trading off the highs.  We see double-top so looking to buy at major support.
Price wedge is below us, so look to buy the lows and sell the highs of the wedge.
PHOD is above us, so this is still an inside day.
Related Posts

Grind-Break Trading Strategy | Crude Oil, Emini, Nasdaq, Gold & Euro

Momentum Channel & Range Strategy | Crude Oil, Emini, Nasdaq, Gold & Euro

Fractal Trading Strategy | Crude Oil, Emini, Nasdaq, Gold & Euro

Head-Fake Trading Strategy | Crude Oil, Emini, Nasdaq, Gold & Euro

Trading with “Context” | Crude Oil, Emini, Nasdaq, Gold & Euro

Stop Missing the Best Trades | Crude Oil, Emini, Nasdaq, Gold & Euro

Earn More with Confirmation | Crude Oil, Emini, Nasdaq, Gold & Euro

4 Ways to Profit from Reversals | Crude Oil, Emini, Nasdaq, Gold & Euro

    schooloftrade

    Click Here to Leave a Comment Below

    Leave a Reply: