December 7, 2013

Weekly Market Update: Solid Economic Gains tell Traders to be Ready for Tapering

– After data
released this week, it is more than likely the Fed will taper QE spending at
the Dec 17-18 or the Jan 28-29 meetings.
The
highlights of the week were the second reading of US Q3 GDP and the November
jobs report. The GDP numbers were good and the jobs figures were very good, and
taken with the already unambiguously positive housing data, it’s hard not to
see that the US economy is seeing substantial improvement.

After
Friday’s jobs report, PIMCO’s Bill Gross said that he believes there is a 50% chance
of a December taper at this point, while Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Hatzius
opined that the numbers were not a blockbuster and that the Fed would not taper
in December.
Retail names
suffered all week thanks to a few bad quarterly reports and a rather tepid view
of Thanksgiving holiday sales. ShopperTrack saw sales on Thanksgiving and Black
Friday up just 2.3% y/y, while the National Retail Federation saw weekend
spending falling to $57.4B from $59.1B y/y.
Stock indices
spent much of the week well into the red with tapper talk and profit booking
identified as the likely catalysts, but Fridays jobs report opened to door for
rally that recouped much of what had been lost.
For the week,
the DJIA declined 0.4%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ were essentially
unchanged.

Read
the entire weekly recap here
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