Traders look for ‘treats’ on Halloween Crude, Gold, Euro and Russell Futures Prep

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The James’ Report: Professional Resources for Professional Traders

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– Dollar Index trading in a bearish price channel and we are OUTSIDE day, above the PHOD from Friday. This tells us the DX is bullish, and also gives us a nice price magnet if the sellers push it back down.
Makes perfect sense to sell the channel highs, so we expect this price to move lower unless the buyers are too strong.
Lets plan if the dollar rises or falls. if dollar rises it will go higher to 76.460 which means Im selling at resistance on euro, gold, crude, and russell. If the dollar moves lower it will move to the previous day’s trading range, which is the higher percentage move, and when the dx falls we will buying at support euro, crude, gold, russell, and any market that we trade.

Our 13range on the dollar index is SCREAMING at us to be careful this morning. Monday morning with a narrow dollar trading range and a price wedge is telling us to remember LAST Friday’s price action and think before we trade this morning.

– Crude Oil futures are trading in the range from Friday, we call this INSIDE DAY, so buy the lows and sell the highs, and avoid the middle of the range. We also see us at the lows of the channel so if price falls I cannot sell without a higher risk trade. I’m looking to buy at support as price falls and I wont be able to sell until below 90.45. The key is market personality, so we are watching the dollar index closely looking for clues I can use with this price structure on the crude oil.

Crude Oil 34range chart shows us in a price wedge, and it makes sense to buy the lows, sell the highs, and avoid the middle on this Halloween Monday with such narrow dollar ranges today so far. this may change quickly, but as of NOW this is telling us to buy lows, sell highs.
looking to buy the lows on crude oil now after seeing this double top and drawing our buy zone using our advanced price strucutres.

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Around the Globe this morning:

– BoJ appears to get serious and will intervene until satisfied. Real money tests Japan’s resolve to weaken the JPY

– China cautious on EU aid- ECB Trichet last day as chief and noted that the EU debt crisis was not over.

– Russia: Ready to help EU via IMF tools and would hold bilateral talks with Euro Zone members.

– EU Periphery spreads widen

– German retail sales data disappoints

– EU unemployment rises to highest level since June 2010

– European shares lost the euphoria of the European debt crisis agreement and traded down during the session as uncertainties and unknowns remain over details of the package.

– Moody’s commented on the European debt plan and noted that is was a negative for regions ‘AAA’ nations and for Greek creditors. Moody’s did note that the plan was slightly positive for the banking sector

– China President Hu: Monitoring the European situation carefully and those recent developments have been positive in the region. Hu reiterated belief that Europe can overcome its debt crisis and that China has a comprehensive strategic partnership with EU for cooperation

– German govt official: German sought G20 to maintain the Toronto debt goals and expected G20 plan to promote the local debt markets. Germany to discuss spillover effects from fiscal policy and surveillance and would talk about IMF cooperation with regional financial institutions. There was no reason to increase IMF resources but to discuss EFSF-IMF cooperation. G20 was to identify 29 systemically relevant financial bodies .He noted that Chancellor Merkel and President Obama would meet ahead of the G20 summit this Thursday.

– The UK Coalition is expected to announce a jobs project on Monday. Deputy Prime Minister Clegg will announce 35,000 jobs will be created using approximately £1 billion in public funds. The investment in more than 100 projects should follow with billions of pounds of investment from private enterprises.

– The Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard commented on the social problems being dealt with by southern European governments. The governments there are facing political issues amid weak economic growth and austerity measures. Unemployment in Germany remains low, as austerity measures push up the jobless rates in the southern European countries.

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Today’s Economic News:

Traders looking for Halloween trading opportunities should be patient and look for the best times of the morning to participate.

We begin our day knowing the volume MAY be lower today with the Halloween Holiday in the US. With all the banks and markets open, we don’t think this holiday will be THAT deterrent for traders, especially with the Fed meeting starting tomorrow.

We begin with news from CAD this morning and 830am GDP. This will get the crude oil futures markets moving early because of the large exports of crude from Canada.

We then move through 930am EST into the 945 Chicago PMI, which has been getting better every report for the past 3 months, so optimism is high.

We then have 1030am Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, which is another mover for crude, so we will be watching closely.

Looking for the best times to trade today will revolve around these news events. Look for the market REACTION to the news this morning for clues to direction the rest of the day.

We will review these today in our live trade room.