December 2, 2011

Trade the News Market Internals update at 12:00ET

Dow +76 S&P +10 NASDAQ +20
***Economic data***
– (CA) Canada Nov Net Change in Employment: -18.6K v 20.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 7.4% v 7.3%e
– (US) Nov Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +120K v +125Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: +140K v +150Ke
– (US) Nov Unemployment Rate: 8.6% v 9.0%e
– (US) Nov Avg Hourly Earning M/M: -0.1% v 0.2%e; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.3 v 34.3e 
– (MX) Mexico Central Bank leaves Overnight Rate unchanged at 4.50%
 – This morning’s November jobs report is front and center this morning, with the data helping to hold up the equity gains seen all week. The headline non-farm payrolls and private payrolls numbers fell a bit short of expectations; however, the big decline in the overall unemployment rate is fueling tempered enthusiasm. The decline stemmed from a big drop in the number of out-of-work individuals actively seeking jobs, dragging the unemployment rate down to a 32-month low. While this is not a shining example of an improved job market, there was also some hope taken away from the higher back-month revisions to the non-farm and private payrolls numbers. For the first time in a while headlines out of Europe have been relatively restrained. 
-The only major story has been another unconfirmed report that EU finance ministers are working ECB to lend troubled euro-zone nations €100-200B through the IMF. Similar speculation was roundly denied last week by both the IMF and the ECB. Note that late in the morning, traders were passing around articles suggesting that Congressional GOP members were working to prevent the IMF from using funds to assist Europe. Risk assets have given some ground heading into the European close which has helped the greenback and Treasury market firm up. 
– Research in Motion trimmed its Q3 outlook this morning and said it no longer expects to meet its FY12 guidance. The move is prompted by a downward revision in the valuation of its PlayBook tablet inventory, however the company took pains to reiterate its commitment to the product. It also warned that shipments in Q4 would be lower q/q. Shares of RIMM are down more than 8%. Hard-drive manufacturer Western Digital hiked its revenue guidance for Q2 yesterday evening – only a little more than a month after offering a very weak Q2 outlook with its Q1 earnings report. Apparently overall industry supply has turned out to be more constrained by the Thailand flooding than earlier believed. WDC said that industry shipments in the Dec quarter will be limited to 120 million units versus demand of 170-180 million units. Shares of WDC are up more than 12%, while competitor STX is in the red. 
– With the jobs data sustaining risk appetite, the euro was strengthening heading into the US open. However EUR/USD at 1.3535 and quickly reversed, dropping quickly to test yesterday’s low around 1.3415. Dealers are unclear about the catalyst for the move, although technicians note the pair was trying to hold last week’s key pivot point of 1.3410 before breaking below 1.34 on apparent stops.
***Looking Ahead***
– 16:00 (CO) Colombia Nov Producer Price Index M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.9% prior

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