March 29, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
This HIDDEN Level was the key to day trading crude oil futures
830am est
– We have crude oil chopping around the PLOD so we’re waiting for direction on crude
– The speed is very slow, so we’re being patient and spending our time working on the best opportunities today
– We see gold rollover today to the 06-11 contract from the old 04-11 contract
– We rolled forward, now we need to identify the major levels of support and resistance
835am est
– Looking at the gold futures we see a sideways range most recently, but we also see the transition in this area from bullish to bearish.
– Will price keep going sideways? Will the support hold and the longer term bull channel prevail?
– Or will the sellers take control and bring this price back down into the bearish channel below it.
910am est
– The dollar is rising with the bullish price channel, but now we are at the highs of the sideways range on the dollar and we MAY see this dollar now drop.
– Look for the dollar to give us a clue where we’re going next.
– If the dollar drops off the highs, we buy support on the markets we’re trading
– If the dollar breaks new highs, im selling at resistance on the markets we trade.
915am est
– Crude oil futures break into the middle of the range from Monday after the 9am open of the pit
– We are now seeing the crude oil chart inside the range from Monday
– We need to beware inside days can be sloppy
– Sell the highs on crude oil @ 104.00 is our next short
– Our next buy will be 103.36, but we see the OPEN is at 103.41 so beware a sloppy sluggish price action around the open of the day.
– The tough part right now is that we had crude oil moving at 900am but cant do much with the current location.
1000am est
– Crude oil gave us a great sell off the 104.00 highs and we took it for a winner
– Now the speed slows down and we test the 34range trigger line.
– Momentum on the 34range chart is overbought, so our technical’s say GET SHORT
– However, the news @ 10am says consumer confidence is dropping, which has the dollar dropping, and the crude oil rising
– Our big challenge now is to find out WHO controls the crude oil market.
– Are the buyers going to re-test the HOD?
– Are the sellers going to re-test the LOD?
– Technical says SHORT, while the Fundamentals say LONG
1100am est
– The markets have slowed down at 11am
– We’re watching the personality very closely to see when these markets become too slow and sluggish to keep trading.
– The dollar index did indeed drop off the highs as we expected, but now its trading quietly just off the highs, in the middle of the range.
– Sideways and slow dollar = sideways and slow markets we trade most.
1115am est
– The personality on these markets are changing
– We no longer have the dollar correlation working, most likely because of slower speed and less volume
– We sold the highs on gold, took profit at the first target, and now waiting to see if this trade will drop more for us.
– Crude oil is at the highs of the price channel, and the highs of the sideways range, and we want to be selling these highs.
– The biggest challenge on crude oil is consistency in the SPEED and BIG MONEY, and the amount of ROOM we need for the trade to run.
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