Gold & Crude Oil on the move after Greek Bailout vote passes and US Dollar Index Tumbles against the Euro

We finally have Gold moving higher off the lows this morning which comes after the news about Greece pushes people to seek shelter from falling US Dollar prices.

We’re also watching this ‘dog fight’ between OPEC and IEA develop more this morning.  Everyone seems to be waiting for OPEC to retaliate over the release of crude oil reserves, and even President Obama spoke about this in his speech yesterday afternoon, everyone trying to get a hold on this rollercoaster crude oil market.  One this is for sure, we’re getting great moves on these crude charts do day traders are loving every minute.

Initial jobless claims for the June 18 week rose 9,000 to 429,000. However, the Labor Department had to estimate results for six states, which is a sizable number, due to what it says were “technology issues” which must mean computer problems. So, we may see a sizeable revision with this coming week’s number.

Jobless Claims SchoolOfTrade.com

Jobless Claims SchoolofTrade.com

Chicago PMI is tied to inflation, which means the US Dollar Index and Gold Futures will likely be the markets to watch, and of course any currencies as well such as the Euro, Aussie and Yen.

Natural Gas report at 10:30 wont be much more than a blip on our radar today.  Unless you’re trading ‘Natty Gas’ you wont see much movement from this report, very similar to how Wednesday’s we have crude oil inventories that really only affect crude oil.  We wont pay much attention to the 1030am news.
We will wrap up trading around 11:30am this morning and then have an open Q&A session for members and guests looking to learn more about our trading methods.

The US Dollar Index continues is fall from highs last week, trending down more each day as the Euro gains on news from Greece.

US dollar Index SchoolOfTrade.com

You can see the strong trend channel I’ve drawn on this 13range chart, and more importantly you can see the short term trend (day traders use this) is now moving off the lows of the channel, so we will watch what’s REALLY happening right now on the dollar throughout the day today.  Remember, it’s always about RIGHT NOW with the US Dollar Index as day traders.

Crude Oil futures made a great run on Wednesday off the lows, but they met with resistance at the highs of the trading range around 96.00 and we can easily see this sideways range developing at these highs so we will use this mainly this morning.  Looking to sell the highs and buy the lows, I will be using this range as my guide, and look closely, we will have a wedge pattern forming off the lower highs on this 89range chart.  I will use a 34range to better define the wedge later this morning in our trade room.

Crude Oil Futures SchoolOfTrade.com

Gold Futures have finally made some sort of move off the lows, after the vote passed in Greece on Thursday the Euro rises, dollar falls, and the need for gold increases to seek shelter from the falling dollar.  It will be interesting to see how LONG this bullish move will last, the fight aint over in Greece, and the Euro has been a bear for a very long time, so this may be short lived, and the price action the past two weeks confirms that for me.

Gold Futures SchoolOFTrade.com

We can see a sideways range on gold forming at the wedge lows.  The easy way to trade this will be to avoid the middle, which is also the trend line of the wedge, and focus your trading on buying the lows 91.0-95.5 and then wait to sell the highs 1515.0-1526.5.  The key will be to watch the speed and the momentum at those highs and lows to help us make trading decisions, which I will review in real-time this morning in our trade room.

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