November 15, 2010

Stop Loss on Gold Futures selling the highs, 2nd move was winner, here’s why

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830am est

– The dollar index is trading quietly at the open this morning and giving us some clues for what to expect later today:

o Outside day (moving market)
o Narrow trading range (be patient and wait)
o Middle of the trading range (be patient)
o Speed is slow (be patient)
o Average true range is ok (be patient)
o Trend lines as support (rising dollar = falling everything else)

 Short position considered to be higher % today

845am est

– Gold futures are trading at the lows of the wedge pattern, we want to buy the lows

o Entry long above 71.7 will buy the breakout
o Entry long at 56.5 will buy the pullback
o Keep an eye on the trend lines going through the center of the wedge
o Take your ½ position off at the trend line
o Take your final profit target at the highs of the wedge.
o Stop loss will be placed at the lows of the day’s trading range
o We will train you on this in our members training on Wednesday this week.

– Don’t forget the dollar has trend line support

o Expect the SHORT TRADES to be the best opportunities today
o So what do we do with gold at the lows of the wedge?

 Sell resistance on the way up

• Wait for price to jump up, and then look for the reversal back down
• Selling pullbacks

– Fundamentals (dollar index) tells us to look short
– Technical (wedge pattern) tells us to look long
– Lets wait and see what the highest % opportunity that comes

900am est

– We get a little more in-depth on the gold futures market and the 21-range chart shows us in a sideways trading range

o We are in the middle of the range, so we need to wait
o Sell the highs of 5.7
o Buy the lows of 9.9

1000am est

– We’ve trading profitably on the gold and crude oil futures, and now at 10am est the market’s personalities are beginning to change

o Slower speed
o Not as many moving patterns that we saw earlier this morning
o Average true range is falling

– Russell index futures are trading off the recent highs and now at the lows of the wedge.
– We also see the Russell has a WIDE OPEN SPACE if we can break below 716.3

o If we break this support, we then trade into the sideways range from 716.3 down to 688.1 as shown on the 34-range chart in the previous weeks.

– At the lows of the wedge, I want to buy the lows

– If we break the support, I will then look to sell the highs below 716.3

– Dollar index is rising, we are looking for shorts

1045am est

– Dollar index chopping around the PHOD to the P-OPEN

– Slow and sluggish on the dollar = slow and sluggish on everything else

– We also noticed the personality change, so lets be patient and wait

1115am est

– We’re looking to buy the lows on crude oil futures

o 13-range chart shows us at the lows of the wedge and the sideways range
o We want to buy these lows
o Check your rules

 ALL RULES LINE up = take the trade

1130am est

– Getting conflicting feedback from the markets we trade

o Dollar index is rising off support
o Crude oil is also rising off the lows

 How can this be?
 Something has to correct, and its usually NOT the dollar

o Dollar index average true range is falling, so narrower price action on the DX = narrower price action on the crude oil, gold, euro, Russell, any market you want to day trade.

    schooloftrade

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