July 2, 2012

News and Dollar Index Correlation Prep

800am EST
The bullish market sentiment this morning is coming from the
EU Summit agreement on terms over the weekend, and the early morning news from Europe
regarding the unemployment rate and PMI. 
The big question today in the US morning session is, will this continue
in the US?  We will be looking for clues
in market personality and possible price reversals if the market sentiment changes
going into 930am EST.
The heat map posted on the morning prep this morning tells us
there is a strong enough dollar index correlation to be used today.  The bullish dollar index says we need to
focus on looking for selling opportunities on the markets we trade most.  We can also see the Crude Oil and gold
futures markets are the biggest movers today, with the euro and the E-Mini-Russell
a little less movement today.  We will
start with Crude Oil and gold futures.
830am EST

The dollar index is trading inside the range
from Friday and that tells us a big clue for market personality.  Range-bound markets sit inside their previous
day’s trading range, so we assume that selling the highs and buying the lows
will be the high-percentage trades with the market INSIDE DAY.  

We can also see multiple price wedges and we
have a short term price wedge inside the longer term price wedge.  We can see trigger-zone support right below
us, waiting for price to fall so it can hold and reverse.  Our plan on the dollar index this morning is
to leverage the heat map and the negative correlation and keep looking for higher-highs
on the dollar index to support its bullish trend and then looking for selling
opportunities either with lower-lows and wave patterns or higher-highs and then
a price reversal.

    schooloftrade

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