September 26, 2012

Morning Crude Oil Checklist:

Heat Map
Review:

Crude Oil is
a moving market with a -1.4% moving lower this morning.

Overnight
Highs & Lows:
We have new lower-lows
twice this morning in the London euro session on Crude Oil futures.  As of 830am EST we see this doji candlestick
pattern which tells us the price-reversal is likely to try and occur.

Inside or
Outside Day?
We are
trading below the lows from Tuesday.  We are
below the PLOD so this leads us to believe we are bearish.  Price below the PLOD confirms that sellers
see value in lower prices.  This also
means that if price cannot stay below the PLOD we then will assume those lower
prices have been rejected.  We will buy
above the PLOD if the sellers cannot hold on to control.

Find the price-structures:
·       Trigger-zone is support below us, and
we cannot locate the current resistance trigger-zone because we have a falling
market with new lower-lows.
·       AB=CD Pattern is bullish with support
at 88.00
·       Price-wedge (no)
·       Price-channel is bullish in the long
term, and bearish in the short term.
·       Zigzag (no)
·       Sideways / Trading Ranges (trending today)
·       Double-top / Double-bottom (trending today)

Where
will a reversal be likely today?
We will look
for the price-reversal at the PLOD and the price-channel lows today.  If price rises the PLOD is the transitional
point on this chart.  Above the PLOD we
are buying, and below it we are selling. 
If price drops lower we will see the AB=CD Pattern come into play around
the price-channel lows and the 88.00 big-round-number.  Look for the price-reversal at the support at
the price-channel lows.

What is
our trading plan for today?
Our day trading strategy for Crude Oil today is to trade
short with new lower-lows but also look out for the price-reversal at these lower-lows
with a failed wave pattern.  If we see
short sellers FAIL we know its only a matter of time before the buyers can
reverse and go higher.  At the same time,
if we can keep going lower we have a bear price-channel that tells us to sell
retracements with wave-pattern-short and a final profit-target at the 88.00 big-round-number
and AB=CD Pattern.

    schooloftrade

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