July 30, 2012

Euro Currency Futures Checklist:

Heat Map:  What is it
telling us?
Heat map says bearish -0.4% and this goes along with the
dollar index correlation we saw earlier today.

OHLC Analysis:
4 higher-highs so we SHOULD be bullish, but like all the
markets this morning, dollar index included, the price-reversal has already
occurred.  We assume this is bearish.

Overnight Highs & Lows:
We have broken the lows from Friday and the early-morning
lows from this morning, which is another big clue for sellers be in control and
we want to sell short with them.

Are we inside or outside day today?
We are trading right on top of the PLOD after the sellers
made new lower-lows below the PLOD.  This
tells me that 1 of 3 things is likely to occur. If the sellers fail and this
price RISES we will buy with 2-step and/or wave-pattern long to capitalize on
the sellers failing.  If the sellers are
too strong, the buyers too weak, and we can make new lower-lows below the PLOD
this means the sellers are in control and we will keep selling with
wave-pattern short along with them. 
Third scenario is the one we need to be aware of the most.  If price trades sideways it means there are
NO strong sides, the buyers and the sellers are too weak, and the price will
sit.

What price-structures do we see?
·      
Trigger-zones
are overhead (3 of them) and we see a recent support trigger-zone below us.
·      
AB=CD
Pattern is bullish, and we have a wait before we can use it. 
·      
Wedge
is bearish, sell the highs at resistance and buy the lows at support.
·      
Price
channel is bearish, there are two channels and the wider price channel (the
major price channel) is proven to be an advanced price-structure.  We now know the high-percentage trades will
occur selling around 2475 and/or 2675.
·      
Zigzag
is not here on this chart timeframe
·      
Sideways
/ Trading Ranges are there, we use the previous swing-low and the most recent
swing-high to locate it.
·      
Double-top
/ Double-bottom not today!

Where will a reversal be likely today?
If price rises the price-reversal will occur at the highs of
the bear price channel. If price keeps moving higher we will then assume the price-reversal
will occur at the advanced price-structures resistance at 2475.  The higher % price-reversal will occur at 2475.
If price falls we know the likely spot for price-reversal will
be around the PLOD or the trigger-zone support. 
Keep an eye out for when the euro pushes below the PLOD it will test the
2225 trigger-zone support and then we will buy above the PLOD as the buyers
grab control.

What is our trading plan for today?
If price rises we will buy using our wave-pattern long after
seeing the sellers fail below the PLOD.  Take
profit at the highs of the price channel, and if you can, hold a runner up to
2475 advanced price-structures resistance.
If price falls we have very little room to trade short until
we get into a wave-pattern-short below the highs of the zone below us at 2225
and take profit target at the lows of the zone, the major support below us, and
the lows of the price channel.

    schooloftrade

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