March 28, 2011

Daylight Savings Time affects the markets we trade

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810am est

–          We’re watching as a sluggish market begins to wake up for the next week ahead
–          We’re checking news, checking the dollar, and reading our charts
–          Going through our morning routine gets us familiar with the market personality and gives us confidence in our day ahead.
–          The dollar is rising, which gives us selling opportunities
–          But the morning is young, we’re waiting for some consistency in the speed, so we wait
830am est
–          We see the bullish channel highs on the dollar index may have these markets slowing down at the new lows
–          With the dollar moving today im excited for a potentially big day, but then we open the average true range on a 3min chart of the dx 06-11 and we see lower highs and barely not lower lows on the dollar
–          The falling ATR is a sign of things to beware.  Ranges get narrower with lower ATR, so beware.
–          Good things come when the range gets wider, so hopefully this day is still getting started.
850am est
–          We look at the 89range chart on gold futures and this clears our mind and gives us clear definition of the big picture
–          Now we know we are in the middle of the larger bearish channel, and coming to the lows of the price wedge.
–          We also see the 89range BMT level is not too far away, so that price will act like a magnet
–          Expect the gold futures to keep dropping down to 1403.00 the BMT on the 89range
900am est
–          Im looking over the 34range chart of the gold futures
–          What am I looking for?
o    Sideways range
o    PHOD/PLOD
o    Price Channels
o    Wedges
o    Support below us (buy)
§  1409.7, 1405.0m 1400.00, 1397.0
o    Resistance above us (sell)
§  1418.3 trigger line (wave short), 1421.0, 1424.3 PLOD
o    Double-tops/bottoms
930am est
–          We’re waiting for the US OPEN to hopefully bring some more volume into these sloppy markets this morning
–          We watched as we have three decent wave patterns short on crude oil, many members took them, but I did not , slow speed is still a concern as price  is falling
–          Now we notice the dollar is dropping off the resistance overhead
–          We now may see buying opportunities with the dollar dropping
950am est
–          We look at the crude oil 89range chart and we easily see that we broke above the bearish channel on CL and then traded sideways at the 106 area, and now the price is looking for more direction off the highs
–          We see a price channel below 103.00, and if we break into this bearish channel, we should then assume the sellers will try to push prices even lower.
–          We notice the crude at the highs of the sideways range below 104.00, look to sell the highs
–          We can also see bearish price channels which further confirm this rising dollar and selling opportunities on the crude oil futures
–          PHOD and PLOD are ABOVE us.  This is an OUTSIDE trading day, which means good things for day traders, but reality in a slow day we expected the PHOD and PLOD to act like price magnets
–          Buy support as price drops on the crude oil
1015AM EST
–          Now lets go through each market looking for places to buy and sell with the highest %
–          Gold futures
–          Sell the highs of 1421.0
–          Buy the lows 0f 1410.0
–          Crude Oil

    schooloftrade

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