June 15, 2012

Day trading strategy for the dollar index

The dollar index trades off the highs of the long term bull channel
and right on top of the PLOD,
so we know the bears on the dollar index may push
this price below 82.070 and get all the markets we trade moving higher.  Remember to use the market personality of the
dollar index as our most important clue today. 
When the dollar index moves so does everything else, and when it doesn’t,
we need to beware.

The dollar index 21-range chart is the faster
chart timeframe and we can see a lot more details and the most important
clues.  First, the bear price channel has
developed into a bear price wedge, so we know that selling the highs of this price
channel or price wedge will be high-percentage trades today.  Second, check out the AB=CD Pattern that puts big-time support at the wedge lows.

The biggest clue is the combination of three
things; 
first, the inside day tells us
that price action is contained inside the range from yesterday, which tells us
there is no conviction in the market as a whole.  Second, the price wedge is another BIG CLUE
for market personality because we know this price wedge will give us a ton of support
at the lows and resistance at the highs, and with the market personality saying
‘fake-out breakout’ we know the price wedge and the inside make for RANGE-BOUND
markets this morning until something pushes us higher or lower.  Third, the lack of confidence going into next
week’s trading after the highly-anticipated elections in Greece on Sunday.

    schooloftrade

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