June 13, 2012

Day trading strategy for the dollar index

We are still trading the 06-12 contract, along with all the
other currency futures on the CME exchange. 

The rest of the quarterly contract rollover has been completed so keep
an eye on the front-month volume on the 06-12 version of the dollar index and
be ready to rollover on the 09-12 as soon as the volume tells us.
We can see the long term bull price channel and the short
term short-term trading range.  This sideways
range recently shows us the lack of confidence to move higher or lower, and
when we use the dollar index correlation to make educated decisions we know
that a sideways dollar index chart will give us sideways charts on other
markets. 
The short-term price wedge is the biggest clue we get when we
see that the PLOD is right above us making this a possible ‘inside trading’ day
also inside a price wedge.  This tells me
exactly what we assumed would be the case from the 144-range showing us the
sideways range in the short term.  We know
the price wedge and the inside day on the dollar index tells us to expect fake-out
breakouts with new higher-highs or lower-lows. 
I’m also assuming that the dollar index is looking for something else to
get it moving today.  Right now in the
middle of the range we can tell the buyers are confident to push new highs, and
the sellers aren’t confident to push new lows. 
So we SIT in the middle, and this is a HUGE clue for today.

Our plan today will be to use the dollar index market
sentiment as the biggest clue.  The price
wedge on the dollar index tells us this sentiment is likely to be very inconsistent,
lacking confidence in one direction or the other, and this will lead to fake-out
breakouts and sideways, range-bound markets such as Crude Oil, E-Mini-Russell,
euro, and gold futures.

    schooloftrade

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