March 1, 2012

Day Trading Strategies for Dollar Index , Euro, Crude, Russell and Gold futures

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The James’ Report:  Day Trading Strategies for Professional Traders

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Heat Map Futures
***Notes/Observations from around the
world***
— European shares were
higher during the session even after FOMC’s minutes showed that the Fed was
not planning a second round of QE
.

However, China and US PMI rose above expectations while jobless claims,
expected during NY morning, are expected at a four-year low.
– Fed Chairman Bernanke
provides no hint of QE3; has a change again today to clarify his views

Dealers note that ECB’s 3-year LTRO constitute an easing of monetary conditions
with €313B net add; ECB balance sheet now amounts to 32% of euro area GDP,
compared with 21% in the UK, 19% in the US and 30% in Japan

Italy 2-year Govt bond moves below 2.0% (first time since Oct 2010)

European PMI Manufacturing data mixed

Spain has completed almost 40% of gross 2012 issuance

Euro Zone Jan Unemployment Rate surges to record EMU levels

Speakers:


There were 2 questions said to have been asked to the ISDA about Greece’s
credit default swaps (CDS). The first question related to whether the use of a
collective action clause (CAC) was a credit event. – The second question
related to if the Greek debt swap represents a credit event. The ISDA meets
today with a decision expected before Monday, March 5th


ECB’s Makuch reiterated the central bank view of not expecting another 3-year
lending LTRO and that  funds from second
LTRO to go to non-financials


Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) cuts 2012 and 2013 GDP
outlook. It trimmed the 2012 GDP view to -0.75% from -0.50% prior Dec forecast
and cuts its 2013 GDP view to 1.25% from 1.3% seen in Dec. The CPB also raised
the deficit to GDP for the period putting the 2012 Deficit at 4.5% from 4.1%
prior and the 2013 Deficit to GDP to 4.5% from 3.0% prior.


Brazil said to have raised IOF tax on some currency operations to curb BRL
strength (as speculated) – US financial press


BOE Miles: Aggressive loosening of monetary policy might help economy and make
it easier to normalize interest rates sooner. He noted that too much attention
has been paid to the impact of QE on gilt yields while focus on corporate
yields was more important. Low UK Govt bond yields were likely due to
safe-haven flows. He reiterates the view that inflation would likely keep
slowing

–  Asia Development Bank (ADB) chief Kuroda
commented that there could be a slowdown in Asia as the Euro crisis and high
oil prices were a risk to the region’s growth outlook

Currencies:

–  US data and 
Fed Chairman Bernanke lack of signal more policy stimulus continued to
aid the greenback during Asia today
but entered into a
consolidation mode during the European morning. The European currencies were
off their morning lows and shock off a spat of mixed PMI manufacturing data and
a surge in the Euro Zone unemployment data.


The EUR/USD was trading around the 1.3340 leve and slightly positive from its
Asian opening level. The current resistance was seen at the 1.3365 level, which
was a former hourly support line earlier in the week.


The JPY currency maintained its soft tone. The USD/JPY remained above the 81
handle with EUR/JPY cross hovering around the 108 level.

Political/ In the
Papers:


The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) amended its economic
forecasts lowering its 2012 and 2013 GDP outlook. It cut the 2012 and 2013 GDP
view to -0.75% (-0.50% prior) and 1.25% (1.3% prior) respectively. Please see
our 01:43 head line for full the release.


Despite the ECB’s three-year LTRO operations conducted yesterday, there has
been only tepid demand for longer dated EU peripheral bonds. In terms of the
Italian yield curve, the two-year yields have declined more than 10-year
yields. The shape of the curve could mean that Italian bonds still have credit
risks.


The FT reported that the German Bundesbank continues to have concerns about the
ECB’s lending programs. In a letter to the ECB president, the head of the
Bundesbank Weidmann raised concerns about the risks related to the ECB’s
lending measures.


The Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard made positive and negative remarks
about the ECB’s LTROs. While the operation has lowered the risks of a credit
crunch, it has led to the EU’s weakest banks in increasing their holdings of
the sovereign debt of the weakest countries.


Germany’s Chancellor Merkel was said to have acknowledged international
pressure related to the limit for the ESM. According to the German press, which
cites government officials, the Chancellor could soften her opposition to
increasing the limit of the ESM to €750B from €500B. It was said that both the
ESM and EFSF could function simultaneously for about one year.

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Today’s Economic News:

News for Day Traders
– 8:00
(US) Fed’s Pianalto


8:00 (BR) Brazil Feb PMI Manufacturing: No est v 50.6 prior


8:00 (US) Mar RBC Consumer Outlook Index: No est v 45.1 prior


8:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bonds    


8:30 (EU) Poland Fin Min Rostowski speaks at Brussels Think

– 8:30 (CA) Canada Q4 Current Account
(BOP): -$9.6Be v -$12.1B prior

– 8:30 (CA) Canada Jan Industrial
Product Price M/M: +0.3%e v -0.7% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: +0.5%e
v -2.4% prior

– 8:30 (US) Jan Personal Income: 0.4%e v
0.5% prior; Personal Spending: 0.4%e v 0.0% prior

– 8:30 (US) Jan PCE Core M/M: 0.2%e v
0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 1.8% prior; PCE Deflator Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.4% prior

– 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims:
355Ke v 351K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.415Me v 3.392M prior

– 10:00 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke
delivers semi-annual monetary policy report

– 10:00 (US) Jan Construction Spending
M/M: 1.0%e v 1.5% prior

– 10:00 (US) Feb ISM Manufacturing:
54.5e v 54.1 prior; Prices Paid: 58.0e v 55.5 prior


10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey    


10:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Remittances: $1.5Be v $1.8B prior


10:30 (US) Fed’s Raskin


10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories


11:00 (IC) Iceland Q4 Current Account (ISK): No est v 12B prior


12:00 (FR) France Socialist Candidate Hollande to hold Meeting in Lyon    


12:00 (IT) Italy Feb New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -16.9% prior


12:30 (US) Fed’s Lockhart speaks on Economy and Banking in Atlanta    


13:00 (MX) Mexico Feb IMEF Manufacturing Index: 53.0e v 51.8 prior; Non-Manufacturing
Index: 52.9e v 51.7 prior


13:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Trade Balance: $2.3Be v -$12.9B prior


13:00 (IT) Italy Feb Budget Balance: No est v -€3.3Be; Budget Balance YTD: no
est v -€3.3B prior


15:30 (MX) Mexico Jan YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v -355.5B prior


17:00 (US) Feb Total Vehicle Sales: 14.00Me v 14.13M prior; Domestic Vehicle
Sales: 11.00Me v 11.05M prior


18:30 (JN) Japan Jan Unemployment Rate: 4.5%e v 4.6% prior


18:30 (JN) Japan Jan National CPI: -0.1%e v -0.1% prior


23:30 (US) Fed’s Williams speaks in Honolulu, HI    

– (US) Republican Georgia Primary
Event    

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