November 30, 2011

day trading strategies dollar index, crude oil, russell, euro and gold futures

We begin our day with the dollar index, which is vital to our day trading strategy with its negative correlation to the markets we trade most.

The Dollar Index 89 range chart shows a bull price channel, we’ve tested the trigger zone and moved higher, only to FAIL at the 79.515 levels, and now we are coming back down.  this shows us a FAILURE of the AB=CD Pattern, so we view this as a very bearish sign for the dollar index.

Dollar just tumbled after news from the ECB gave confidence to the euro, and this now makes us sit on hands as we wait for the short term trend to settle down a little.  We dont know WHERE and WHEN the dollar will settle down, but we know we need to be patient.

Crude Oil trading in a price wedge, outside day, and around the big round number of 100.00.  We need to FADE the breakouts with a price wedge, so look for the buyers to fail and use wave failures and 2step patterns to sell these highs of the range.  If price keeps going higher I will buy a pullback above 102.00 which is the Double-Bottom Extension.  Beware the fake-out breakout at these highs considering we have a price wedge.

Crude Oil 89range chart ALSO shows us an AB=CD Pattern from the most recent move higher, and we use this along with the Double Bottom and the Price Wedge to see major resistance overhead, and the price wedge always says to FADE the breakouts so im looking to SELL at the highs of these ranges.

Crude Oil 21range chart shows us the same bull price channel, however we will also use this double-top pattern as long as the price does not make new higher highs.  This double top tells us to buy in the zone below us, and if price keeps going through the zone to sell down to the Double-Top Extension Support which is also the lows of the bull channel.

Gold Futures trading at the highs of the bull price channel, and the highs of the major trigger zone.  we also see a double-bottom on the 89range chart which allows us to use the MAx Extension as resistance as well.  The Dollar is dropping today, so beware trying to buy into the resistance overhead, look to sell the highs, and if price keeps going higher buy pullbacks as resistance turns into support.

Gold 34range chart shows us this big move up, and we use the major swing low and the minor swing lows to find the ‘trigger zone’ for each move.  these zones are targets for the short trades, and then if we bounce off the support in the zone we then buy it above the zone, or sell if we break new lows below the zone.

Russell Futures trading in a bear price channel, and recently broke ABOVE the trigger zone from the recent swing highs and lows. this move above the zone is bullish, so short term buying opportunities above the resistance overhead, however, the higher percentage trades will be selling at the resistance overhead. If we rise higher im selling at channel highs, and if we fall lower im sitting on hands until we get below the zone, and then sell down to the PHOD and to the PLOD as final target for shorts.

The 34range chart on the Russell Shows us the sell zone from the double-bottom below us, and the max extension above us, so we can consider this area to be a transitional-area, looking for the market to chose where it wants to go next.  As price rises im short term buying above 725.5 but looking at the selling opportunities as the higher percentage trades.

The Russell 21range chart shows us a TON of useful information for our day trading strategy.  This big move up has given us lots of clues.  If price rises im selling 725.5 and then being very careful and buying a pullback above that resistance.  Final target going long will be 729.7 in the reversal zone from the AB=CD Pattern.  If price falls higher risk selling opportunity below 720.0, and then a higher percentage selling opportunity below 716.7 as we sell below the trigger zone.  And then if price keeps falling we can sell retracements down into the next ‘zone’ below us, take profit at the ‘zone, and then look to sell off below the zone once again.

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