April 1, 2011

Day Trading Morning Prep Gold, Crude Oil, Dollar Index, Euro, E-mini Russell Futures

‘We are what we repeatedly do.  Excellence, therefore, is not an act, but a habit’ – Aristotle
Let’s begin our morning routine with the economic news for today’s trading session.
8:20 Gold & Currencies OPEN
9:00 Crude Oil OPEN
9:30 US Market OPEN
11:00 Transition into Lunch
11:30 European Close / Live Webinar in our Trade Room
Looking at the news this morning we know today is a Friday, the beginning of April and the beginning of the 2nd quarter of the year.  This all means today could be very quiet with traders waiting for next week to begin the 2nd quarter, or today may be nice and active with traders getting the new month/quarter off to a good start.
I will be watching for volume at 830am est, and then try and Reading the Tape at 835am to see the market’s reaction to the jobs report at 830. 
Im also expecting a slowdown rather early this morning.  Friday’s always end earlier than most days, and today may be even more dramatic with the big news at 830am
Be looking for volume to slow down at 1030am this morning, watch the  average true range (ATR) and the speed drop after the 10am news.
Lets look at the markets we’re day trading this morning…
Crude Oil Futures
Im looking at the 89range chart this morning and I see…
  • we’ve tested the 107.71 resistance we defined on wednesday
  • we are in a strong uptrend
  • we are in a bullish price channel
  • we recently broke the highs of the price wedge

You can see all these aspects are confirming the STRENGTH of this market right now, pushing to new highs.  This will definately give me a slight bias to the long side for my swing trades, but I will keep my options open for day trades in either direction today.

Now look at the 34range and lets get serious with the best price levels im looking at.

  • Strong bullish price channel
  • Sideways range at the highs
  • PHOD and PLOD are below us

Bullish price channel confirms our assumption about BULLISH sentiment in the crude oil market this mornig.

We also see the sideways range, and the test of the PHOD, which also confirms that the sellers were given the option TWICE to grab this market and drag it back down, but they didnt.

We’re trading above the PHOD and PLOD, so this is also bullish in nature, trading ABOVE the range from the previous day.

All these bullish signs in the market, tells us to buy pullbacks, and look to buy at support if price drops.

If price rises…

  • sell the highs, sell at resistance, for a short term short trade
  • the bullish sentiment tells me buying pullbacks will be the better idea
  • selling 107.41, 107.65, 108.00
  • buying above these levels with pullbacks, using the wave pattern if we break them

if price drops…

  • i want to buy anything i can when price drops
  • buying first as price drops, then selling a retracement as price breaks new lows
  • beware the trend line in pink, the highs of the price wedge
  • buy 106.21, 106.00, swing low at 105.59, buy 105.02

    schooloftrade

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