July 28, 2011
- in Uncategorized by schooloftrade
Crude Oil price channel & wedge gave me easy clues to hit profit goals today
Our morning prep was posted at 745am this morning. Waiting on the debt ceiling vote this morning in the US. Summertime trading so watch the clock, 830-1130 is our sweet-spot.
The US dollar making new highs, bullish price channel, this is bearish on the markets we trade.
Crude Oil is trading sideways, and if we rise to new highs we have a very difficult area to trade around 98.50-98.40, so we would rather see prices fall today on support where we can buy at 96.50 and then sell retracements below 96.50 down to 95.00
Bull channel on crude oil tells me the highest % trades will be buying at support.
Gold futures are trading sideways at the all-time highs and the bull price channel tells us to buy at support as price drops for the highest % trades today. Be very careful trading around the all-time highs of 28.8. We want to sell the highs, but it will be sloppy.
The Russell futures are trading at the lows of the price channel, so look to buy at this major support. Bear price channel tells us to keep selling retracements as we make new lower lows, and then we can buy at the major support 90.6, 79.0, 70.3 as price drops. Keep in mind the highest % trades in a bear channel will be selling at resistance if price makes new higher highs.
The Euro is trading in the middle of the price wedge, and we can see plenty of resistance overhead and support below to give us opportunity for profit. If we fall to new lows we have a bull channel so buying at support is the highest percentage trade today. and if we make new highs we then sell at resistance overhead and buying at the lows of the channel and other support levels as we rise.
830am est
Jobless Claims come out lower than expected, but we fear the analysts see right through it as being manipulation of the news number. ‘398l’ versus the 400k that was the low.
We also notice that Gold has rolled over to the 12-11 contract, same as last year, as traders hedge against rising prices. This is a big clue.
900am est
We finish rolling over the gold to the 12-11 contract, and we see the volume is still very slow, and we remind ourselves that gold today may be very slow b/c of this ‘change’ out of the ordinary.
910am est
We have a very tough spot on crude oil. at the lows of the major bear channel (buy here) and then we have a recent bear channel and we are coming off the highs (sell here)
Double tops tell us to buy at support as price falls.
· Inside day on Gold
· Inside day on Crude Oil
925am est
We wait patiently for the US Markets to OPEN, everything very quiet this morning on a summertime Thursday and the debt ceiling news coming out shortly.
Gold futures have a few options this morning.
If prices rise I’m selling 20.6, 21.4, 27.2, and if prices fall I’m buying 13.6, 12.6, 11.9, 08.0
We also know the highest % trades on gold will be buying at support.
1000am est
Pending Home sales are higher than expected (USD Bullish, Crude and Gold Bearish)
1015am est
Dollar drops and goes into the previous day’s trading range, inside day now.
Inside day on the dollar will results inside days on the markets we trade most.
1020am est
we start seeing the price action get very whippy, so beware and be selective with our trades moving forward.
Gold at the 89r lows, and looking oversold, we want to buy these lows.
1035am est
Gold is now a little too sloppy for our liking, not giving us the follow through that we think is coming after we see the big money enter on the tape.
Crude Oil is in the middle of the trading range, so we wait patiently.
Gold is at the major support wedge/sideways lows and we want to buy now at these lows.
We had the sellers pushing new lows, we tried to sell short, but the price action is very tough to get follow-through.
