July 31, 2012

Crude Oil Chart Checklist

Heat Map:  What is it
telling us?
Crude Oil heat map says +0.4% so we’re considered bullish
until we see something different.
OHLC Analysis:
3 out of 4 are higher, but no trigger for the OPEN trade
today on Crude Oil Futures.

Overnight Highs & Lows:
We have broken, but failed to stay above overnight and early
morning highs in price.



Are we inside or outside day today?
We are trading in the middle of the range from Monday, and
right on top of the open.  This tells us
there is very little to expect in this location.  In the middle and around the OPEN we assume
things will be sloppier than normal.

What price-structures do we see?
·      
Trigger-zone
support below and resistance above keeps this price contained.
·      
AB=CD
Pattern is bearish and we are trying to break resistance to achieve the ‘D’
·      
Price
wedge we have 2 of them, we are at the highs of one of them.
·      
Price
channel is bullish and contains the AB=CD Pattern
·      
Zigzag
are not on this chart
·      
Sideways
/ Trading Ranges we do see on the 89range and we are in the middle.
·      
Double-top
/ Double-bottom is not easy to see but we MAY have a double-bottom in there,
but we need a faster timeframe such as a 21-range.

Where will a reversal be likely today?
We can see two possible price-reversal locations today on
this chart for Crude Oil.  First, if
price falls below the PLOD we will test major support at 88.90 and this is
where the sellers are likely to exhaust and the buyers return.  Second, if price moves higher we will test
the price wedge highs and the PHOD as major resistance.  We will assume the sellers will attempt to
hold the highs of the price wedge around 90.34, and may go as high as the 90.95
resistance overhead, however, if those buyers aren’t strong enough this market
will collapse and reverse back down off the highs.

What is our trading plan for today?
Right at this moment we need to sit-on-hands until we test
the highs or the lows of this recent trading range.  I’m looking to buy around the PLOD and the
88.90 support below it.  I’m looking to
sell at the PHOD and the price wedge highs. 
If the buyers are strong and price moves higher I will use the wave-pattern-long
above 90.95 with the profit target at the next trend line overhead.  Beware there may not be enough room to get
long so use caution.

    schooloftrade

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