May 19, 2010

108 Ticks Live Today. Gold is a Trader’s Best Friend!

The Market Gives us clues today…

830am EST

– Dollar Index Futures are trading off their highs of the week

o Sitting sideways inside the center of the bracket

o Double-tops and bottoms above and below, and we wait for a breakout

o Pace of the tape is still pretty slow, but faster than we’ve seen all week

o Average true range is off its weekly lows, and appears to be rising as the day moves forward.

o We need to wait for the dollar to start to move towards its trading extremes, meanwhile, we look for rising speed and ATR to give our markets the moves they need today.

945am EST

– Crude Oil futures trading at their lows, going sideways

– WE have clear space to the upside, so our highest percentage trades will most likely occur there.

o Wait for above the 73.000 for the best opportunities.

1100am EST

– Trading gold futures contracts we notice now that our last entry on gold became very choppy and slow.

o Average true range confirms that we are getting narrower as the morning moves on

o Pace of tape indicator is ALL red, and when I look at the entire morning we can see the SPEED has been dropping since 930am EST

 Tells us that this GOLD MARKET is not getting BETTER with time today.

 It appears the longer we wait, the worse the price action gets.

DX-PATTERN SHORT ON EURO:

For the 2nd day in a row, took the Euro short, got stopped out just before the market went to fill our target

– Make sure momentum confirms on the entry

– Make sure we are NOT in a choppy, tight trading area on the dollar, b/c we are going to need the dollar to have lots of room to breathe.

– Use the BLUE Medium Timeframe for my stop

o I’ve used the green and twice I’ve been stopped out just to see the trade work out.

Open/High/Low/Close: Are these important?

– OPEN: use caution around the OPEN/CLOSE

o 6-tick rule applies

o Call this our ‘zero line’ (stay away)

– CLOSE: use caution around the OPEN/CLOSE

o 6-tick rule applies

o Call this our ‘zero line’ (stay away)

– LOD: Use this for entries

o 6-tick rule applies

– HOD: Use this for entries

o 6-tick rule applies

OPEX:

– Options Expiration

– Occurs on the 3rd Saturday of the month

– Last trading day is a Friday, so we call it OPEX Friday

o If the first day of the month is a Friday, this will occur on the 4th Saturday of the month

– Only applies to Equities (E-mini)

o Does not apply to the Currencies,, Commodities

– Inside of OPEX Week

o Wednesday of OPEX is a VERY busy and potential nasty trading day

o ‘Wacky Wednesday’ is described by seeing LARGE, unpredictable moves from the BIG MONEY the market, as they prep for the end of the week

o No reason behind, no follow thru,

o Most pro traders will schedule doctors visits, mother-in-law visits on Wacky Wednesday

– Thursday is usually very mild compared to wacky Wednesday

– First hour of Friday = final touches

– First hour of Monday = re-balancing

Daily target for 1 contract:

– 10 ticks = $100usd

– 2 winners of 5 tick target

– 1 winner of 10 tick target

9 trades today, 8 Winners, 1 loss

+108 ticks, $1,090usd

Only 4 contracts needed to achieve this today!

See you tomorrow @ 745am EST for the live trade room session!

    schooloftrade

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