June 3, 2010

100+ Ticks LIVE Today. Easy way to AVOID this Chop in the market.

830am EST

– We start each day with the dollar index, and we can see the dollar index is trading in a tight, sideways trading range with trend lines converging in the center, creating a wedge pattern

o Average true range has been dropping since early this week so we have a very big concern that the OTHER MARKETS we trade may be slow and sluggish b/c of this ATR reading

– WE see the dollar index futures at their highs, so we look for a DX pattern to the short side on the dollar but we have multiple levels of support to worry about.

o We have less than 15 ticks of room for the dollar to move down, so we will wait for the dollar to test the HOD again and look for an entry trigger closer to the highs

845am EST

– Gold futures are also trading sideways with trend lines converging at the center of the range, creating a wedge pattern
o We will want to wait for this market to wake up and break above/below the wedge pattern in order for us to see the highest percentage patterns

900am EST

– Crude oil futures are also trading sideways with a wedge pattern formed from our trend lines

o Average true range is rising off its lows, however, its still lower than it was earlier this week

o We noticed that we have lots of support as far down as 71.65, so look for us to break below that level for the highest percentage trades.

Today’s market environment is choppy, sideways, range-bound, so how should we trade it?

– Use a slower timeframe to avoid the ‘noise’ that comes with a choppy market

o Trending days = faster timeframe

o Choppy days = slower timeframe

 When its choppy we want to be more selective and only take the best trades

950AM EST

– Watching gold futures set up for a breaker pattern on both the 4 range (fast for scalpers) and a 13-range (little slower for day traders) however, the speed in the market is VERY slow, POT < 100

o We will wait to see the 13 range pattern trigger for a longer term hold.

– I’m scanning the markets looking for patterns

o Slowest charts (34 range) show me where the most important levels are

o Then look at the faster charts for different patterns, they are the SAME patterns on ANY market, ANY timeframe, ANYTHING goes

o Start with my faster charts first…

 4-range….nothing there…

 8-range….nothing there…

 13-range…nothing there…

 30-min…

 60-MIN…we notice we are right in the middle, and our perfect pattern needs to occur NOT in the middle, but rather at the extremes.

When the volume is low, we see people seeking to fill our stops, and then the market turns around and goes in our direction

– Lower volume = opportunity for manipulation

– Without the BIG MONEY in the market today, the sneaky large day traders can EASILY move a small market like crude/gold/Russell around wherever they want

– This is why we don’t trade lunch

– “while the BIG MONEY is away, the market manipulators will play”

o b/c they aren’t there to move the market fundamentally, it opens the door for other traders with LARGE accounts to move the markets simply to fool the other traders.

1045AM EST

– we took a nice big winner on the gold futures with a 2-step long off the low of day

– we then looked for a 2-step short off the new highs looking to take the market right back down, but we fell victim to some low volume and market manipulation
o the 2nd trade was considered very high risk for 2 reasons

 very slow speed, very low volume on the gold futures at the time of entry
 we had support from our medium timeframes directly below us, so we had to get below that first.
• The trade would have worked out, except for the volume was so slow.
• This is why we don’t trade this type of environment very often (too slow)
4 trades today, 1 winner, 1 loss
100+ ticks, + $1,000usd

Only 4 contracts needed to achieve this today!

See you tomorrow @ 745am EST for the live trade room session!

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

    schooloftrade

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