June 26, 2012

Morning Prep Notes from Live Trade Room

800am
EST
The
first thing we notice is the bearish news from Italy, the UK, and mixed news
from Germany ahead of the EU Summit this weekend.  We already know the news from China overnight
was also very bearish, so we’re anxious to see if we will get the selling
opportunities we assume will come our way today.
We
can also see the heat map this morning is very flat and narrow, we don’t even
need charts to see these markets we love to trade are looking something ‘more’
this morning before they get moving today. 
We need to stay patient, follow the plan, and keep our emotions under
control while we wait.
830am
EST
The
dollar index futures are trading higher at the highs of the range from Monday without
much market personality for us to use as confidence.  We use the dollar index correlation all day
long but we need market sentiment and market personality to give us some
clues.  Today we don’t have that yet.
The
144-range chart timeframe on the dollar index shows us the long term bull price
channel, with 2 bearish AB=CD Patterns which are symmetrical in PRICE, and we
have projected a possible reversal zone to come into play around September 2nd
2012 when the technical pattern gives us resistance. 
We
can see the narrow trading range, which tells us that the dollar index is
lacking confidence.  We are trading
INSIDE DAY today and this means we need to trade INSIDE the range we’re in
until we break the new higher-highs or lower-lows outside of Monday’s trading
range.  Remember to keep an eye on the possible
failure at the highs or the lows these are BIG and EASY clues for high-percentage
trades on the horizon.
845am EST
We
check the heat map our on blog this morning (morning prep section) and we can
see exactly what we thought was the case today. 
We have a flat dollar index almost confirming the lack of direction and
confidence ahead of the EU Summit, and this means we cannot use the dollar
index correlation until we have this heat map improving.  We can also see the E-Mini-Russell is rising
higher, so we will consider that bullish, and the rest of our favorite futures
markets, Crude Oil, euro, and gold futures are all dropping to new lower-lows today
so we will consider these bearish until something changes this morning.
 We dig in deeper using the much faster 21-range
chart, we can see two distinct clues from this timeframe.  The first clue is the previous price wedge, and
we’re looking for price to get below 82.280 before we can assume it will drop to
the price wedge lows.  Second clue is the
short term bull price channel which tells us at the highs we will have buying
opportunities on the correlated markets we trade.  Think about that;  at the highs there is resistance and with dollar
index resistance there is support on the markets we trade.

    schooloftrade

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