May 31, 2012

Dollar index day trading strategy

The dollar index trades
in a long term bull price channel, inside the range from yesterday, with a
short term bull price channel along with lots of overhead resistance

The dollar index is used as a correlated market so when the dollar index
is rising the NEGATIVE correlation tells us the prices on Crude Oil, E-Mini-Russell,
euro, and gold futures will likely fall. 
When the dollar index falls, everything else rises.

We have a recent
bearish AB=CD Pattern which is providing us with a reversal-zone at the 82.845
and the dollar index has tested this
level of resistance and now come back down off these highs.  Will this resistance at the AB=CD Pattern be
the reversal point?  Will the dollar
index fall lower now?  Or will the buyers
be too strong and push new higher-highs?

Think about the three
scenarios on the dollar index;  if the dollar
index moves higher through this resistance we then will sell retracements with
new lower-lows on the markets we trade
.  If the dollar index moves
lower off this resistance we get a falling dollar index and a rising price on
everything else so we’re buying pullbacks with new higher-highs and buying at
support.  The last option is for the dollar
index to trade SIDEWAYS, without going higher or lower, trading consolidated at
this resistance.  If the dollar index cant
move from this location, and trades sideways it will have the same affect on
other markets, which means we will buy the lows, sell the highs, and avoid the
middle of the short term trading range.



We
use the 55-range chart, a much faster chart timeframe to find more vital
details on this dollar index
.  We can see the strong bull price channel and
this gives us more confidence in selling SHORT today with a strong dollar index.  We also see the price channel lows and a new trigger-zone
support around 82.500 so this tells us that the dollar index will likely pull
back as far as 82.335 (double-bottom resistance) and if price moves below
82.335 we can assume price will drop lower to the 81.500.  so we’re looking for trading opportunities if
the dollar index moves lower to this major support.

    schooloftrade

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