July 30, 2012

Crude Oil Morning Checklist:

Crude Oil Chart Prep

Heat Map:  What is it
telling us?
Negative 0.4% means it is dropping this morning, makes sense
knowing the dollar index is bullish.
OHLC Analysis:
Something wrong here! 
We have a bullish bias and price is falling!

Overnight Highs & Lows:
We have new lower-lows telling us this market is bearish.

Are we inside or outside day today?
We are inside day, after failing above the highs.  This tells us to sell short, with profit
target at the lows of the range.

What price-structures do we see?
·      
Trigger-zone
above us and below us
·     AB=CD
Pattern is bearish and the recent bullish short term AB=CD Pattern has been
violated when we broke the trigger-zone resistance.
·      
Price
wedge is marked with a triangle in blue, buy the lows at support and sell the
highs at resistance.
·      
Price
channel does not exist on this chart
·      
Zigzag
needs a price channel, so not here.
·      
Sideways
/ Trading Ranges; we are in the middle of the range and price wedge.
·      
Double-top
/ Double-bottom are not on this chart.

Where will a reversal be likely today?
At the PLOD or the highs at 90.95.  we have already tested and broken the PHOD so
we will not expect to see a major price-reversal there.

What is our trading plan for today?
Be careful!  This price
action is in the middle of the price wedge and the range.  We have little news on a Monday morning in
the summer time months, and last few days of the month.
We want to sell the HOD at 90.95 or, if the buyers are very
strong, after a fake-out breakout we can buy with the wave-pattern LONG.  Final profit target on the buy will be the price
wedge highs, and if we get to the highs of the price wedge we will take profit
and then look to sell short with a wave-pattern failure or 2-step pattern.
If price tumbles lower we will sell short with wave-pattern
looking for lower-lows and the perfect trigger as this is in the middle.  Ideally our profit target is down at the PLOD
and the 88.90 support which will soon become a price magnet if the sellers are
weak.

    schooloftrade

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