February 25, 2010

66 Ticks Sideways Ranges on Crude Oil & Gold We know what to LOOK for!

What a great day in the markets today! I think we may be learning here!

We waited patiently for the time in the day when the price was moving quickly, and not sitting there slowly.

We knew to pay close attention to the DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES Fast & Slow timeframes.

We knew to stay AWAY from the extremes on the sideways ranges in crude oil and gold futures.

And we knew to follow those rules when we tried to enter a trade.

The result? NO STRESS! Easy trading and no pressure to MAKE UP TRADES!

We traded everything from the British pound, to Gold and Crude Oil futures today.

The day started pretty well, taking 3 winning trades before 930am EST is always a major plus, and then we can stay focused on the best potential entries the rest of the day.

We took a small loss at 1030am EST, but finished up the day with our largest trade of the day on Gold, on a 2-step short, counter trend off the High of Day!

It was another great day…see you in the live trade room tomorrow!

6 trades today, 5 winners

+66 ticks, $600usd

Only 4 contracts needed to achieve this today!

See you tomorrow @ 745am EST for the live trade room session!

TODAY’S TRADE ROOM QUESTIONS:

WEBINAR: Trading the News:

– Every new trader attempts this

o I spent more than 1 full year trying to study and dissect how to trade the news

Here were my results:

– Charts tend to Jam on you

o When the news is released, charts tend to lock up, makes it hard to execute!

– Market lose liquidity

o People are desperately trying to get filled

o Lots of slippage

o The choppy price action around the news = more slippage as well

– No way of telling what the REACTION will be to the news release?

o Jobless Claims RISE (less jobs, more un-employment)

 Crude Oil = rise?

• Cost of goods drop

• Inflation should drop

• Commodity prices should DROP

• Crude oil should….fall?

• What was the previous report?

• Are there any continuing claims?

• What was the expectation?

How do trade the news?

– Avoid the market 5-mins / 5-mins

– Avoid that illiquid, unpredictable in the reaction to the news event

– Pick a news event that happens WEEKLY

– Study the previous releases

– Study the reaction to the market

– Study the OTHER news releases that could correlate to it

o Jobless Claims:

 Manufacturing, goods and services produced

 Durable Goods orders, cars, trains, manufacturing

 CPI, PPI, Inflation

 GDP, NFP numbers

– Once you have your news event identified, and you do your homework….

– What is your entry rule?

– What is your exit rule?

o Jobless Claims

 Entry = exceed the expected news number by 10%, and the correlated news is XYX

 Exit = reaction to the news, profit targets, and where is your stop?

• Where do you take profit?

• Where do you get out for loss?

o S/R levels, major levels, most important

• Profit targets

o 8 / 23 / 50

In conclusion:

– Had days made $3000

– Had MORE days losing $3000

– Trading the news is NOT consistent

– That’s why I don’t trade it today

    schooloftrade

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