Thursday, October 5, 2017

Non-Farm Payrolls & Reversal Line Trading Strategy | Crude Oil, Emini, Nasdaq, Gold & Euro



“A common trait among successful people is that they have friends who expect them to keep improving, and they challenge them to keep redefining the defining of success.”


Crude Oil is bullish with a Spike & Channel, telling me to look for a re-test of the high, but a key level from yesterday’s session is telling me to wait for a seller-failure before buying more tomorrow.

S&P is bullish after running higher this morning, and a Spike & Channel is telling me to look for a ‘2-legged pullback’ for more buying opportunities tomorrow.

Nasdaq is bullish and trying to finish channel rotation, which tells me to prepare for three (3) possible trading scenarios tomorrow.

Gold is bearish with a measured-move and channel rotation, telling me to look for selling-opportunities after a ‘2-legged correction’ off the lows tomorrow.

Euro is bearish with a Spike & Channel, and my plan is to look for selling-opportunities using the reversal-line and the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.

We had some BIG moves in today’s session, we have some BIG news (Non-Farm Payrolls) tomorrow morning, and we have some big trading opportunities using those reversal-lines on the chart for tomorrow.


Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is bullish with a Spike & Channel, which tells me to look for a re-test of the high, but we’re trading on top of yesterday’s high, which tells me that sellers will likely try fading this move back down to the prior week low.

My plan for tomorrow is expect a re-test of the high, but look for buying opportunities AFTER the sellers try to run this price lower, using the support trend-line and prior week low as key support levels.

If price runs higher, I want to avoid buying above 50.92 because I anticipate sellers will be waiting, so my plan is to look for traps and seller-failures to avoid buying into that resistance area tomorrow.

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is bullish after shooting higher this morning which really makes our job a lot more difficult because we don’t have much to work with tomorrow.

All we really KNOW for certain is that we have a strong move higher into a Spike & Channel, which tells me the odds are quite high that we get a ‘2-legged pullback’ and a re-test of the high tomorrow morning.

My goal for tomorrow is to use the '2-Try Rule' during the pullback to see the sellers try to fade this move and look for buying opportunities when they fail.


E-Mini Nasdaq Trading Strategy
E-Mini Nasdaq is bullish and trying to finish rotation up to the high of this channel, which will then tell me what to look for tomorrow morning.

If price finishes rotation up to the channel high, then my plan is to look for a ‘2-legged pullback’ down into the ‘battle zone’ and use the measured-move as a key level of support.

If price begins to pull back BEFORE it finishes rotation to the channel high, I will consider that to be an “undershoot” and will then look for an “overshoot” thru the low of the channel, using the 40.50 reversal-line and ‘battle zone’ as key support for tomorrow.

Lastly, if price keeps grinding higher tomorrow, I will consider this to be a Spike & Channel, and will focus on buying with “bear traps”.

Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is bearish after collapsing down to the measured-move target we discussed in last night's newsletter, which means we’re a little too low to sell at this point, so my plan is to wait patiently for a ‘2-legged correction’ off these lows and look for selling-opportunities up in the ‘battle zone’, using the most recent reversal-line as resistance.

If price keeps pushing lower, I don’t want to sell into this support area, so my plan is to wait for “bull traps” up above the moving-average for the most reliable selling-opportunities tomorrow.

Remember, Non-Farm Payrolls news is tomorrow morning, and Gold is one of the most volatile markets around this major news release.

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is bearish with a Spike & Channel, which tells me to look for selling-opportunities up in the ‘battle zone’, preferably using the reversal-line at the top of that resistance range.


If price keeps pushing lower, it’s important to remember that we’re underneath the monthly lows, so unless I see a STRONG push lower off tomorrow’s news, my plan is to look for “traps” to avoid buying too low.

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