Thursday, September 21, 2017

Weekly Wrap-Up Strategy | Crude Oil, Emini, Nasdaq, Gold & Euro



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Crude Oil is bullish and trying to re-test yesterday’s high, but one BIG CLUE from today’s high is telling me that I need see a completed “rotation” before I know exactly where to look for buying opportunities tomorrow.

S&P is range-bound with a triangle, telling me to focus on failures using the '2-Try Rule' to fade the breakouts going back to the 2500 round number tomorrow.

Nasdaq is bearish and trying to re-test today’s low, but this evening’s closing price is a big clue that we may be developing into a range tomorrow.

Gold is bearish with a flag pattern, which tells me to look for an overshoot of the high, combined with buyer-failure in the ‘battle zone’ for a move back to the low.

Euro is bullish, but we have two major levels of resistance in our way, telling me to look for buying opportunities down in the ‘battle zone’, or wait for a strong push higher for a re-test of last week’s high.

Friday is just around the corner, which means we have a specific plan for wrapping-up the week, and with the big ranges we’re seeing today, tomorrow is shaping-up to be another great opportunity in our trade room!


Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is bullish and trying to re-test yesterday’s high, but the reaction to TODAY’s high is a big clue, telling me wait for more strength to the upside, or a move back into the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.

One thing to keep an eye on tomorrow is the way this market responds to the high at 50.79, because if the buyers don’t show proof with strength, this could easily tumble back down to today’s low and become a Trading-Range for tomorrow.

My goal is to see strength going higher to complete bull channel rotation, so I can then buy the ‘2-legged pullback’ tomorrow morning.

If the bulls can’t finish this rotation, then I need to start thinking about buying as low as possible, down in the ‘battle zone’, or down at today’s low.

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is range-bound with a triangle pattern this evening, which makes our job very simple for tomorrow; buy the low, sell the high, avoid the middle, and focus on failures using the '2-Try Rule'.

My goal is to look for opportunities to “fade the edges” of the range, using the swing-highs above and swing-lows below, and staying patient for the buyers and sellers to try and fail on their breakouts.

One thing to note for tomorrow is that we have the 2500 round number, which is also the prior week high and the prior week close… all in one spot in the middle of the chart, which will be our target on both sides until something changes.


E-Mini Nasdaq Trading Strategy
E-Mini Nasdaq is bearish and trying to re-test the low, and a possible measured-move tomorrow, but the way this price finished today’s session near the middle of the range is a big clue for a possible range developing tomorrow.

The bears took price lower on strength this morning, which means this recent correction is most likely another selling-opportunities for the bears.

I’m expecting the sellers to try twice to re-test today’s low, and as of this evening they have tried once already, which tells me to wait for another move into the ‘battle zone’ for the second opportunity to go back to the low.

If sellers can’t re-test the low after the second try, then we need to look at this as a Trading-Range with a bear-bias, using the '2-Try Rule' to sell with buyer-failures above the range tomorrow.


Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is bearish and trying to re-test today’s low, but the measured-move appears to be keeping the sellers from finishing their objective, which has developed into a bear flag pattern.

Flag patterns are tricky, with the risk of selling into the rising support trend-line, my goal is to look for a move higher into the ‘battle zone’ so I can use the '2-Try Rule' to sell back down to the low.

If price pushes lower, my goal is to stay patient, waiting for a successful breakout-pullback to new lows, avoiding the fake-out breakout.

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is bullish and trying to push back to weekly highs, but the 20,000 round number and measured-move resistance levels tell me to look for more reliable buying opportunities down in the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.

The bears tried twice to re-test yesterday’s low, and when they failed, they gave the bulls the opportunity to take control, but that often sends price into “over bought” territory, so we need to avoid trying to chase this move higher.


My plan for tomorrow is to look for buying opportunities down in the ‘battle zone’, while keeping my eyes open for a strong run higher, filling the vacuum that was left from the drop we saw yesterday after the FOMC Announcement.

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