Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Trading Without Pullbacks | Crude Oil, Emini, Nasdaq, Gold & Euro

"One of the marks of successful people is that they never compare themselves with others. They only compare themselves with themselves and with their past accomplishments and future potential."

Crude Oil is bullish with a Spike & Range, which tells us to look for seller-failures below the range for the most reliable buying opportunities tomorrow.

S&P is bullish and trying to fill a GAP left open from the holiday weekend, but we expect to see one more try from the sellers, so we’re staying patient to buy their failure on Wednesday.

Nasdaq is bullish with a Spike & Channel as buyers take aim at going back to the Trading-Range where today’s session began.

Gold is bullish, but a 2-day Trading-Range is telling us to avoid buying the highs, and wait for rotation back to the lows where we can buy with more reliability tomorrow.

Euro is range-bound with a triangle pattern this evening, which tells us to focus on failures using the '2-Try Rule' above the highs and below the lows while avoiding the middle on Wednesday.

Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is bullish with a Spike & Range after a strong run higher to start the Fall Trading Season.

One thing that stands out is the lack of pullbacks on the way higher, telling us that only the aggressive buyers got into this move higher, leaving all the patient and conservative traders waiting on the sidelines.

This important clue tells us to expect a relatively deep pullback off these highs, focusing around those BIG CANDLES where buyers are likely waiting.

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is bullish with a Spike & Channel, which tells us the most reliable buying opportunities will be down in the ‘battle zone’, more specifically, below the moving-average and around prior support levels.

The session started with an obvious Trading-Range, and this could be seen as the first try to leave the range, which tells us that sellers will likely try one more time to re-test today’s low.

That important clue tells us to avoid buying too high because sellers will likely be waiting, focusing our trades on traps and seller-failures at support levels below.

E-Mini Nasdaq Trading Strategy
Nasdaq is bullish with a Spike & Channel, which tells us to look for traps and seller-failures back below the moving-average.

The session started with a narrow Trading-Range and an unfilled GAP left from last Friday, which will act as price-magnets and targets for the buyers tomorrow.

The only thing we need to worry about is trying to buy too high.  The day became very bearish after 10:30am EST this morning and we assume there will be sellers scaling into positions as this price moves higher, so avoid chasing moves higher, and focus on traps at support levels below.

Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is bullish, but trading at the high of a two-day Trading-Range isn’t the most reliable place to look for buying opportunities, so we’re staying patient for either rotation back to the lows, or a successful breakout to new highs tomorrow.

The ideal scenario for tomorrow is a move down into the ‘battle zone’, which will put us back near the range low, where we can be more confident buying tomorrow.

If price continues to push higher, I’m waiting on the second try for the buyers to see if they can hold above the range, and if successful, then will start looking for buying opportunities to a measured-move.

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is range-bound and trading near the highs of the range, which tells us to focus on failures using the '2-Try Rule' to sell above the highs with a target going back down to the lows.

Assuming we rotate back down to the low, I’m watching for the sellers to “try twice”, and if/when they fail will be looking for buying opportunities going back up into the range again tomorrow.

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