Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Profit from Fake-Out Breakout | Crude Oil, Emini, Nasdaq, Gold & Euro



“In today’s world, the greatest source of wealth is between your ears.”


Crude Oil is bullish and trying to re-test yesterday’s high ahead of tomorrow’s weekly inventory report, but we’re a little too close to overhead resistance, so I’m looking for traps and seller-failures to finish the move higher tomorrow.

S&P is sideways and range-bound, so my plan is buy the low, sell the high, and focus on failures outside the Trading-Range tomorrow.

Nasdaq is range-bound with a triangle, which tells me to use the '2-Try Rule' to sell high and buy low outside the range tomorrow.

Gold is bearish with a Spike & Channel, but two major support levels are telling me to stay patient and look for selling-opportunities up in the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.

Euro is bearish and trying to re-test today’s low, but the recent test of the ‘battle zone’ was very strong for the bulls, so I’m waiting for a 2nd try from the bulls before looking for selling-opportunities tomorrow.


Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is bullish and trying to re-test the highs, but we’re getting a little too close to the resistance levels overhead, so my plan is to look for traps and failures on the pullback to avoid buying into the highs.

One thing that does stand out is that this last bullish spike higher came from this afternoon’s API Report, which means this push higher needs to be confirmed.

My goal is to use the '2-Try Rule', watching the sellers try twice during the next pullback and then looking for buying opportunities when they fail.

And of course, we can’t forget about tomorrow’s weekly inventory report, so I will be watching the clock avoiding trading after 10:00am EST, and then looking for opportunities after 11:00am when the price-action calms down a little.

Crude Oil Inventories S/R Levels for Wednesday:
52.74, 52.45, 52.16, 51.87, 51.58, 51.29

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is slightly bullish and trading sideways inside a triangle, traded the same way as a range, which tells me to sell the high, buy the low, avoid the middle, and focus on failures tomorrow.

One thing that stands out on this chart is how much open space we have above and below the range, which tells me that potential breakouts may appear to be successful when they are ultimately going to fail, so patience to wait for the '2-Try Rule' tomorrow will be critical if I want to find the best trading opportunities.


E-Mini Nasdaq Trading Strategy
E-Mini Nasdaq is slightly bearish and now trading inside a triangle Trading-Range for tomorrow, which tells me to focus on failures above the highs and below the lows, using the '2-Try Rule' to buy the low and sell the high back into the range.

The hardest part about trading with a range is staying patient to avoid the middle and then waiting for the buyers and sellers to try twice before looking for trading opportunities back into the range.

Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is bearish with a Spike & Channel, but the low of the channel, combined with the prior lows below it, don’t make it easy to sell down here, so my plan for tomorrow is to look for selling-opportunities up in the ‘battle zone’ so I can get a better risk-reward-ratio.

If price tumbles lower, without a pullback, my plan is to stay patient and look for an opportunity to sell a bull-trap up around the 1300 round number.

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is bearish and trying to re-test today’s low, but this recent push higher into the ‘battle zone’ was a little too strong to sell, so I’m waiting for a second try from the buyers before looking for selling-opportunities back down to the lows.


If the buyers are successful on this next attempt, I still need to be careful because the prior day low will act as resistance overhead, and may give the bears new opportunities to send price back down to the lows, so I will avoid chasing the move higher.

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