Tuesday, September 19, 2017

FOMC Day Trading Strategy | Crude Oil, Emini, Nasdaq, Gold & Euro



“Decisiveness is a characteristic of high-performing men and women. Almost any decision is better than no decision at all.”


Crude Oil is range-bound and smack in the middle of a weekly Trading-Range, and my goal is to “fade the edges” using failures ahead of the weekly inventory report.

S&P is bullish with a Spike & Range, which tells me to look for buying opportunities using seller-failures down in the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow morning.

Nasdaq is bullish, and using a channel, along with a measured-move to plan my trades and trade my plan on Wednesday.

Gold is bearish with a flag pattern, which tells us to look for selling-opportunities using an overshoot and the '2-Try Rule' before the FOMC Announcement tomorrow.

Euro is bullish with a multi-day Spike & Channel, which tells me to stay patient for “traps” down in the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.

All eyes and ears on the FOMC Announcement tomorrow afternoon, which means my plan is “early in, early out”, using the Trading-Ranges we see developing on most charts this week for the most reliable trading opportunities.


Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is sitting in the middle of a multi-day range, which lower-highs and higher-lows creating a triangle ahead of tomorrow’s weekly inventory report.

I never like to mess with the middle, so tomorrow’s plan is to avoid the middle and wait to sell the high and buy the low using failure patterns and the '2-Try Rule' tomorrow.

The big challenge tomorrow is the weekly inventory report (which you can see support and resistance levels posted below), as well as the FOMC announcement in the afternoon. 

My goal for tomorrow is to find trading opportunities before 10am to avoid the inventory report, and then see what the price-action looks like afterwards ahead of the FOMC announcement.

Crude Oil Inventory (S/R) Levels for Wednesday:
51.02, 50.66, 50.30, 49.94, 49.58, 49.22

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is bullish with a Spike & Range, and most likely a multi-day bull triangle as the bulls keep trying to push to new all-time highs ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Announcement.

Judging by the GAP at today’s high, its obvious that buyers are in control, but they are rejecting the idea of buying to new highs, so my plan for tomorrow is to look for buying opportunities below this short-term trading-range, using the '2-Try Rule' in the ‘battle zone’ with a target going back up to re-test the high.


E-Mini Nasdaq Trading Strategy
E-Mini Nasdaq is bullish and trying to re-test yesterday’s high, and my goal is to use this short-term bull channel to look for buying opportunities near the lows, with a measured-move target going back to the highs.

One thing to remember is the 6000 round number and the prior month high will both act as resistance, so as price pushes higher, my goal is to wait for “traps” using bull swings with a target back up to the high.

Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is bearish with a Spike & Range or possible flag pattern, both of which tell us to look for buyer-failure up in the ‘battle zone’ using the '2-Try Rule' for selling-opportunities back down to re-test the low.

One thing we need to remember for tomorrow is that Gold is by far the most volatile and unpredictable around the FOMC announcement, so this market will be challenging no matter what happens.

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is bullish with a multi-day Spike & Channel, and a short-term flag pattern that recently re-test today’s high on strength.

The bulls look strong ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Announcement, as they try to extend this move back to re-test the prior week high, but im always concerned about buying new highs until I see more proof from the bulls.


The best scenario tomorrow would be a move back down into the ‘battle zone’ so we can buy as low as possible.  If price continues to push higher, my goal is to stay patient and look for traps off new higher-highs.

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