Wednesday, September 6, 2017

“Flat” Channel Trading Strategy | Crude Oil, Emini, Nasdaq, Gold & Euro



“You may encounter many defeats, but you must not be defeated. Please remember that your difficulties do not define you. They simply strengthen your ability to overcome.”


Crude Oil is bullish with a Spike & Range ahead of the weekly inventory report, which tells us to look for buying opportunities using seller-failures below the range tomorrow.

S&P is bullish, but an almost-horizontal channel is telling us to use a “range strategy” in tomorrow’s session.

Nasdaq is bullish with a V-Bottom pattern, and the specific location of this pattern is telling us to avoid buying NOW, and wait for price to pull back into the ‘battle zone’ for more reliable buying opportunities tomorrow.

Gold is range-bound and trading at the low of the range, which tells us to use the '2-Try Rule' to buy seller-failures back to the range high tomorrow.

Euro is range-bound, and after the bulls tried and failed twice today, we’re looking for selling-opportunities back to fill the weekend-gap tomorrow.


Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is bullish with a Spike & Range ahead of tomorrow’s weekly inventory report, which tells us that although ANYTHING is possible, our goal is to use the bullish bias to look for seller-failure below the range for buying opportunities going back up to re-test the high.

The biggest challenge for tomorrow is the inventory report, which reminds us to get to our trades before 10:30am, and it most often reverses the weekly trend just to set-up the opposite side of the market as we finish the week.

As of now, the bulls have control, and we’re looking for seller-failures and buying opportunities tomorrow, but don’t surprised if this thing reverses, so keep your eyes (and your mind) open to whatever this market throws our way tomorrow,

Crude Oil Inventory S/R Levels for Thursday:
49.49, 49.33, 49.17, 49.01, 48.85, 48.69

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is bullish with a wide, flat channel this evening, which tells us that the bulls have the short-term edge, but BOTH sides of this market will likely take turns buying off the low and selling of the high.

Whenever I see an almost horizontal channel like this, I trade it like a range.  Buying the low, selling the high, avoid the middle and focus on failures with the '2-Try Rule' around the edges.

With this move lower to start the overnight session, im looking for the bears to try again, and if/when they fail, then we start looking for buying opportunities back up to the channel highs.


E-Mini Nasdaq Trading Strategy
E-Mini Nasdaq is bullish with a V-Bottom into a Spike & Channel as we try to complete the measured-move and fill the weekend gap.

This V-Bottom pattern is important because we’re testing the top of the pattern, which is always where the most difficult price-action occurs.  I don’t want to buy here, too much resistance, so I’m waiting for a pullback to prior swings, preferably down into the ‘battle zone’ for the most reliable buying opportunities back up to complete this long-term bull channel.

Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is range-bound, and just as we discussed in last night's newsletter, the buyers tried twice and failed to keep prices above the range-high, and now we’ve collapsed back down to the range low, where we will be watching for the '2-Try Rule' and seller-failure for a rotation back to the range high.

One item to consider is this falling resistance trend-line, which will most likely keep the buyers from getting too aggressive.  Think of this like a bull flag, coming down off the highs, with the goal of “overshooting” the low of the bear channel in order to “Free up” enough room for the buyers to take interest.

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is range-bound, and after the buyers tried twice and failed, I’m expecting price to collapse back into the range tomorrow, with the target down to fill the weekend gap that is still left open.

The challenge at this point is NOT chasing this move lower.  If you missed the sell up in the ‘battle zone’ from last night's newsletter, now we look for traps up above prior swings to continue the move lower.


Assuming we get back to the low, then stay patient, wait for the sellers to try twice, and when they start showing signs of failure, we can start looking for buying opportunities back up into the range.

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