Wednesday, September 13, 2017

“Sell the Bounce” Trading Strategy | Crude Oil, Emini, Nasdaq, Gold & Euro

“We don't rise to the level of our expectations, we fall to the level of our training.”

Crude Oil is mighty bullish this evening, but two measured-moves and a new channel are all telling me to stay patient and look for a ‘2-legged pullback’ tomorrow.

S&P is bullish, but we’re trading in the middle of a Spike & Channel, which means I’m looking for “traps” to finish rotation back to the high, or a deep, ‘2-legged pullback’ in the ‘battle zone’ to buy the dip tomorrow.

Nasdaq is bullish, but we’re trading at monthly highs on LOW volume, which tells me to stay patient for a DEEP pullback or watch for a successful breakout-pullback to keep buying to the measured-move tomorrow.

Gold is bearish with a Spike & Range, and we have two major support levels on the chart telling us to avoid selling too low, and focus on “selling the bounce” up at resistance levels tomorrow.

Euro is bearish with a strong, four-legged move lower today, which means I’m staying patient to “sell the bounce” up in the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.

Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is bullish and trading at the measured-move target from earlier today, which always tells me to wait for either a ‘2-legged pullback’ and a re-test of the high, or a strong push higher and rotation back to the low of this channel.

The bulls sure got busy today, keeping the bullish trend, and almost back to the prior week high, with the $50 round number just a few moves higher.

The big challenge for the bulls is that we can expect to see profit-taking at these resistance levels, and if we push higher, we run into more resistance.

My goal is to look for a ‘2-legged pullback’ with a target going back to the high, or a successful breakout-pullback to new highs, and then look for buying opportunities off the low of this bull channel.

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is bullish, and trading in the middle of this Spike & Channel, telling us the best plan for tomorrow is to use channel rotation to buy at support with a target going back to the high.

This week’s price-action has been noticeably slow, this move higher today on relatively low volume, which means this price can easily give us a nice deep pullback, and possibly a full trend-reversal.

If price goes higher, the top of the channel is the target, and I’m looking for traps.  If price pulls back, I will consider this to be an “undershoot” and look for a relatively deep pullback down into the ‘battle zone’ with a target up at the measured-move.

E-Mini Nasdaq Trading Strategy
E-Mini Nasdaq is bullish and trading at the high of this weekly range on VERY low volume, which means we’re susceptible to a sharp correction if buyers decide to take profit.

The buyers are looking for that measured-move target overhead, but this monthly high makes it hard to buy at this level, so I’m looking for a deep pullback off the high, or a successful breakout-pullback on STRENGTH tomorrow morning.

Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is bearish with a Spike & Range, and with price sitting on yesterday’s low, just a few points above the monthly low, I’m hesitant to look for selling-opportunities down here.  I would much rather “sell the bounce” up in the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.

The key to selling in the ‘battle zone’ is watching the strength of the move higher, and then more importantly, how the price-action reacts on the chart.

If I see a strong bearish reaction, I’m looking for a buyer-failure to sell back down, but if we see a battle erupt between the bulls and bears, I’ll wait for more confirmation and sell after the buyers try TWICE and fail.

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is bearish with a Spike & Channel and trying to fill the weekend gap still left open from 2 weeks ago.

This strong move lower went four legs down, which will be an attractive place for sellers to take some profit, and hopefully give us an opportunity to “sell the bounce” back down to the lows again tomorrow.

I have my eye on the reversal-line at 19300, the bottom of the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow, but in all reality, we may slide lower in the early part of tomorrow’s session, so we may need to drag that lower if that happens.

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