Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Fake-Out Breakout Pullback Strategy | Crude Oil, Emini, Nasdaq, Gold & Euro

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Crude Oil is bearish after this morning’s inventory report, but we’re trading at two major support levels, telling us the most reliable selling-opportunities will up at resistance levels waiting overhead.

S&P is range-bound with a bull-bias, telling us to focus on buying opportunities below the range, preferably in the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.

Nasdaq is range-bound and stuck in the middle, which tells us to stay patient for seller-failures below the range, or the "fake-out-breakout-pullback" above the highs on Thursday.

Gold is bullish with an overshoot of a channel, telling us to watch for the ‘pendulum swing’ to correct back to the opposite side for buying opportunities tomorrow.

Euro is bullish with a strong move higher, telling us to look for a ‘2-legged pullback’ and a target going back to yesterday’s high.

Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is bearish with a strong move lower to finish today’s session, but we’re trading at the triple-down support and the low of this bear channel, both of which tell us to expect profit-taking from the sellers and the most reliable selling-opportunities up at the highs of the channel as well as the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.

The challenge will be if price keeps pushing lower.  We have the prior month open and the quadruple-down support levels waiting below, so our plan is to focus on traps and failures up above the moving-average to avoid chasing this move lower tomorrow.

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is range-bound with a bull-bias, telling us to look for buying opportunities below the low of the range using failure patterns and the '2-Try Rule'.

The ‘battle zone’ would be the ideal place for buying opportunities tomorrow, knowing that it will be challenging to find a successful breakout-pullback to new highs with the measured-move resistance just a few points overhead.

E-Mini Nasdaq Trading Strategy
E-Mini Nasdaq is range-bound with a bull bias, which tells us to look for buying opportunities below the lows, focus on failures with the '2-Try Rule' tomorrow.

If price tries to push through the highs, aggressive sellers may choose to fade the highs after the buyers try twice, but we have to remember this market is sharply bullish so the odds are much lower of a COMPLETE failure off the highs.

The best option for buyers to new highs is to wait for a STRONG move through the highs and then look for the “fake-out-breakout-pullback” pattern to buy the dip with a target up at the measured-move and prior week high.

Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is bullish with an overshoot of a bull channel, which tells us to look for either continuation through the highs, or an overshoot to the opposite side of the channel tomorrow.

If price keeps pushing higher, we know that buyers are aggressively “hitting the bid” on the way up to the quadruple-up target, and we need to find ways of buying the dips with traps and seller-failures below the moving-average.

If price pulls back off these highs, the rubber-band could be quite sharp, so we looking for a ‘2-legged pullback’, overshooting the lows, into the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow for a re-test of the high.

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is bullish with a strong move higher to finish today’s session, which tells us the odds are in our favor for a ‘2-legged pullback’ and re-test of the highs tomorrow.

This strong move higher tells us that a lot of buyers most likely missed-out on the majority of this move, and they will be patiently waiting for buying opportunities down at support levels waiting below.

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