Thursday, August 17, 2017

“Bounce” Trading Strategy | Crude Oil, Emini, Nasdaq, Gold & Euro



"Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away."

Crude Oil is bearish with a flag pattern, telling us to look for selling-opportunities using failures at the high, while avoid the traps at the lows, and keeping an eye out for a possible reversal if the buyers show us some PROOF.

S&P is bearish and “2-Legs Down” from today’s channel, and when combined with a quadruple-down support, our plan is to “sell the bounce” up in the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.

Nasdaq is bearish with a Spike & Wedge, and one BIG clue on tonight’s chart tells us to look for a ‘2-legged correction’ and a re-test of the low tomorrow.

Gold is range-bound with a bull-bias, telling us to focus on failures below the range, or a "fake-out-breakout-pullback" pattern to new highs.

Euro is bullish with a channel that recently turned sideways into a range, which tells us to look for traps and failures for buying opportunities below the range tomorrow.


Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is bearish with a flag pattern while trying to re-test today’s low.

Flag patterns are challenging because this market hasn’t reversed on strength yet, but the rising support trend-line is likely keeping a lot of bears from selling into buyer-failures.

The key tomorrow will be selling the high of this bull channel (flag) or waiting for a break down below 46.80 and using a “trap high” to finish the job from there.

On the flip side, the bulls definitely have an opportunity to take control, and all they need is a strong push higher and they can grab control for a run back into yesterday’s Trading-Range.

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is bearish with a channel and 2-legs lower, all the way down to the prior week low and overshooting the quadruple-down target.

Today’s move was VERY strong, and most often markets that move this much without much of a pullback will either give us a strong bounce for another shot at selling back to the low, or they go sideways into a Trading-Range the following day.

I would love to “sell the bounce” off this low, using overhead resistance levels as my guide. 

If we go sideways, then I’m going to use the '2-Try Rule' to focus on failures for selling-opportunities back down to the range low again tomorrow.

E-Mini Nasdaq Trading Strategy
E-Mini Nasdaq is bearish with a Spike & Wedge, and without any recent correction, we can assume that there are a LOT of sellers still waiting for their opportunity to sell a ‘2-legged correction’ tomorrow.

Four legs down, and sitting right on top of the wedge target isn’t a very reliable place to sell, so the plan is to look for a bullish correction, hopefully up into the ‘battle zone’ for selling-opportunities back down to re-test the low.

Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is range-bound with a bull-bias as it tries to re-test last week’s high and get up to the round-number at $1300. 

Anytime we have a Trading-Range, the plan is always to buy the low, sell the high, avoid the middle, and focus on failures using the '2-Try Rule'.

The bull bias tells us to focus on failures below the range with a target going back to the high, while the big challenge will be above the range, looking for a "fake-out-breakout-pullback" pattern up to $1300.

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is bullish and trying to re-test today’s high, but this bull channel is quickly turning sideways into a range, which tells us to look for buying opportunities below the range, down in the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.


One thing to keep an eye on tomorrow is the prior week highs and lows, because if the buyers fail to keep control, the prior week low may become the price-magnet and we may see a Trading-Range develop around that area tomorrow.

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