Monday, July 17, 2017

Trading a 2-Sided Market | Crude Oil, Emini, Gold, Euro, FDAX

"The key to success is to focus our conscious mind on things we desire not things we fear”

Crude Oil is bearish with a strong move lower, but a major channel tells us to be looking at the reversal-line overhead for the most reliable selling-opportunities tomorrow.

S&P is bullish with a wide, almost flat bull channel, telling us that both sides of the market will be participating, and we need to focus on buying as low as possible tomorrow.

Gold is bullish with a Spike & Range, telling us to use the '2-Try Rule' to buy with seller-failures below the range-low. 

Euro is bullish with a Spike & Range, telling us to look for failures below the low of the range, and a re-test of the high.

FDAX is bullish and trying to re-test the Spike & Range high from last week, but the sellers are most likely looking for confirmation of buyer-failure while looking for selling-opportunities off the high.

Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is bearish and trying to re-test yesterday’s low, but this major bear channel is telling us it’s “too low to sell” at this point, and we’d rather wait for selling-opportunities up around resistance levels overhead.

One level to keep an eye on for tomorrow is the reversal-line at 46.31, which may line up perfectly with a ‘2-legged correction’ off these lows, so we will be watching closely to see how this pullback looks tomorrow morning.

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is bullish with a narrow Trading-Range and a wide, almost flat bull channel. 

The Trading-Range tells us to buy below the range lows using the '2-Try Rule' and seller-failures.

The bull channel tells us to buy the low of the channel, but it’s also very flat, which tells us both sides of the market can make money, making it important to focus our energy on buying as low as possible tomorrow.

Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is bullish with a Spike & Range, which tells us to look for buying opportunities using the '2-Try Rule' below the low of the range, and a target going back up to re-test the highs.

One thing to keep in mind for tomorrow is this multi-day, major Spike & Channel, which may cause buyers to stall at these highs, and give us a deeper pullback down to the lows.

What does that mean for us?  Not much for the buyers, who will be looking to buy low, but the sellers need to beware chasing the move lower because we assume there will be a LOT of buyers waiting down at the low.

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is bullish with a Spike & Range, which may develop further into a Spike & Channel.  No matter which scenario we see, the bulls have control, the most reliable buying opportunities will come down at support levels and the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.

The only real variable for the buyers will be the targets.  For a Spike & Range, the falling resistance trend-line means the target will get smaller.  For the Spike & Channel, the target will get higher, so it all really depends on if the buyers can make new higher-highs before they pull back to re-test the low.

FDAX Trading Strategy
FDAX is bullish and trying to re-test last week’s Spike & Range high, but the buyers have now tried twice to re-test the highs and appear to be struggling, while sellers are waiting for confirmation for a trend-reversal and a measured-move target tomorrow.

The buyers have control because the sellers haven’t been able to ‘take’ control yet, so the bulls are looking or buying opportunities after they can break above this resistance trend-line and buy a ‘2-legged pullback’.

Sellers on the other hand, will likely see the opportunity to sell a ‘trap high’ above the 21.5 swing, but it’s a little early to call the reversal.  The best option for the bears is to wait for price to collapse off the highs and then look to sell retracements from there.

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