Wednesday, July 5, 2017

“Snap-Back” Trading Strategy | Crude Oil, Emini, Gold, Euro, FDAX



“Keep away from people who try to belittle your ambitions. Small people always do that, but the really great people make you feel that you, too, can become great.” 


Crude Oil is bearish ahead of tomorrow’s inventory report, but a strong move higher off today’s API report is telling us to wait for a second leg higher and then look for proof of who has control from there.

S&P is range-bound and trying to finish rotation back down to the low, but the range is very narrow, so we’re trying to avoid the middle tomorrow.

Gold is range-bound and trying finish rotation back to the high of the range, where we will be watching the '2-Try Rule' to look for selling-opportunities back down to the low.

Euro is range-bound and trying to finish rotation up to the high, where we will be looking for buyer-failures and the opportunity to sell back down to the low.

FDAX is range-bound with both the bulls and bears taking turns, which means we’re focused on failures and waiting for a successful breakout-pullback tomorrow.


Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is bearish and trading at the high of a channel this evening, which tells us to look for selling-opportunities to re-test the low tomorrow.

One thing to keep in mind is this recent move higher is coming from this afternoon’s API Report.  This major news has the potential to reverse this trend ahead of tomorrow’s Inventory Report, so we’re watching to see if the bulls will take control by holding the next pullback.

The plan for tomorrow is to expect the bulls to attempt a second leg higher, and then watch for buyer-failure and selling-opportunities, or buyers taking control and buying opportunities up into the ‘battle zone’.

Crude Oil Inventory Levels for Thursday:
47.12, 46.25, 45.38, 44.51, 43.64, 42.77

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is range-bound and trying to finish rotation back down to the low of the range after the buyers tried twice to break higher.  At this point, our biggest challenge is avoiding the middle of the range because the range is so narrow.

The goal for a Trading-Range is to buy the lows, sell the high, avoid the middle, and focus on failures tomorrow until we see a successful breakout-pullback.

Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is range-bound and trying to finish rotation back up to the high of the range, where we will use the '2-Try Rule' and a failure set-up to sell back down to the low tomorrow.

One thing that stands out on this chart is the prior week low, which may end up being the best clue for sellers tomorrow.  The markets were technically open earlier this week, and price moved rather aggressively lower, and often (much like we saw on Crude Oil today) we see the price ‘snap back’ to where we left off last week before it finishes the move back down again.

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is range-bound trying to finish rotation back to the high of the range, where we expect to see sellers looking for buyer-failures for an opportunity to sell back down to the range low.

One thing to keep in mind for tomorrow is the rising support trend-line, which will be a reliable short-term target for the bears, with a final target going back down to the low.

FDAX Trading Strategy
FDAX is range-bound with both the bulls and the bears taking turns with this market today.  We finish last week with a bear Spike & Channel, which gave us the opportunity to sell for a re-test of the low. 

Then, as we went into the holiday we see a strong move higher into a short-term trading-range which we are currently rotating back and forth inside.

This Trading-Range tells us to buy the low and sell the high with failures, which tells us that both sides of the market have opportunities tomorrow.  The big challenge will be trying to trade the breakout.


We expect sellers to be selling above the range, and buyers to be buying below the range, so we need to stay patient for PROOF of a successful breakout-pullback tomorrow before we can start looking at any continuation moves into the end of the week.

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