Monday, June 12, 2017

Trading with Failures | Crude Oil, Emini, Gold, Euro, FDAX



“I am an optimist. It does not seem too much use being anything else.” 
- Winston Churchill


Crude Oil is bearish with a target back at last Friday’s low, and we’re using channel rotation and a measured-move to find the most reliable selling-opportunities on Tuesday.

S&P is sideways and range-bound after contract rollover, and we’re watching a key support trend-line to use in combination with failure set-ups tomorrow.

Gold is bearish with a triangle, which tells us to focus on failures up above the highs and avoid the temptation to chase anything going lower.

Euro is bearish, but price-action on the chart is giving us plenty of reasons to look for seller-failures and a rally back to re-test today’s high.

FDAX is bearish with a Trading-Range, which tells us to look for selling-opportunities up above the high, but there is a key support level we’re watching for a possible trend reversal as well.


Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is bearish with a channel and measured-move this evening, which tells us to look for selling-opportunities at resistance around the high of the channel with the measured-move and prior day low acting as the target(s) tomorrow.  The bulls had firm control of this market to start today’s session, and just recently the bulls failed to hold the low of the range, so we will be keeping an eye on a possible seller-failure on the next retracement for a possible re-test of the high, but we need to see proof of that first.

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is range-bound and balanced this evening, which tells us to buy the low, avoid the middle, sell the high, focus on failures and use the '2-Try Rule' tomorrow until we see a successful breakout-pullback.  One thing to keep an eye on tomorrow is this rising support trend-line.  We want to sell off the high with a target back to the low, but we don’t want to sell into rising support, so keep that in your mind as we look for selling-opportunities.

Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is range-bound with a bear bias as it struggles to push through the prior day low.  This Trading-Range tells us to buy the low, avoid the middle, and sell the high using failures, and the bear bias tells us the most reliable of those trades will likely be short off the highs. 

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is bearish and trying to re-test today’s low, but the first thing we see on this chart is that the sellers are STRUGGLING to finish this move lower.  Looking closer, we can see the weekend ‘gap’ was recently filled, and with their goal accomplished, we expect to see buyers make a run back to re-test the high.  The goal is to look for buying opportunities after the sellers try once more to reach the measured-move, looking for short-term failures as buying opportunities going back up to re-test the high of the range.

FDAX Trading Strategy

FDAX is range-bound with a bear bias this evening ahead of contract rollover, so the plan is to avoid the middle and look for selling-opportunities up above the highs with buyer-failures using the '2-Try Rule' tomorrow.  One thing that stands out on this chart is the prior low of day, which is always a big psychological support level, so we’re watching to see how to move higher looks and FEELS as it rotates back to the range high, because a strong push higher will tell us the sellers are failing and we will start looking for a ‘2-legged pullback’ to buy the dip on the way back to re-test yesterday’s high.

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