Monday, June 26, 2017

Trading the “Market Mistake” | Crude Oil, Emini, Gold, Euro, FDAX



“Success seems to be connected with action. Successful people keep moving. They make mistakes but don’t quit.” 


Crude Oil is bullish with a Spike & Channel this evening, and a key clue from a market-mistake tells us to avoid buying high, and focus on traps and failures down in the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.

S&P is bearish and trying to finish rotation back to the low of the range (yes, the same range you guys did so well with last week) but we’re getting too close to the middle, so we’re looking for traps tomorrow.

Gold is bearish after this morning’s ‘flash crash’, so the plan is to stay patient for an opportunity to sell up at the same place the crash began, with a target back to the low.

Euro is bearish and trying to re-test today’s low, but some recent price-action on the chart is telling us these sellers aren’t looking to sell this low, so we’re looking for selling-opportunities up in the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.

FDAX is bearish and trying to finish rotation back to the opposite side of the range, but we’re getting near the middle of the range, so focus on traps tomorrow.


Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is bullish with a Spike & Range or possible Spike & Channel this evening after a strong move lower turned into an equally strong move higher to finish today’s session. (Did I mention volatility increases into end of month?) 

The buyers are trying to re-test today’s high, but look at this “market-mistake” off the highs, which tells us the buyers aren’t interested in buying this high, so the plan is to look for buying opportunities with traps and failures in the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is range-bound (yes, the same range from last week) and trying to finish rotation back down to the low of the range tomorrow.  You can see on the chart that we are getting closer to the middle, so in the attempt to avoid the middle, we’re looking for selling-opportunities up above the moving-average, preferably using the ‘battle zone’, for the sell back down to the low. 

One thing that stands out on this chart is the day began with a Spike & Channel.  Whenever a Spike & Channel fails, price will usually go back to the beginning of the spike, so I would expect this market to push through the range low if you want to hold a runner tomorrow.

Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is bearish with a Spike & Range after suffering from a ‘flash crash’ in the overnight London Session.  The most important thing to remember after this type of event is that there will be a lot of traders waiting on the sidelines for an opportunity to get into the market at the point where the crash began, and price will usually come back to let them in. 

I would love to see the buyers run price higher, then fail to hold pullbacks so we can catch a move back into the range tomorrow, with a target back down to the low.

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is bearish and trying to rotate back to the opposite side of the range, and the recent price-action on the chart is showing us signs of exhaustion, so the plan is to look for traps and failures up above the moving-average (hopefully in the ‘battle zone’) to avoid selling too low, with a target back down to the low tomorrow. 

One thing we will be watching tomorrow is the potential of a triangle.  Today’s overall price-action was basically one big range, rotating up and down back and forth, so if the sellers are NOT able to re-test today’s low, we will draw the rising support trend-line and start looking at “fading” the edges.

FDAX Trading Strategy
FDAX is range-bound with a Spike & Range, which means our plan is to sell the highs and buy the lows using failures and the '2-Try Rule' tomorrow.  The buyers just recently tried (and failed) to breakout to new highs, so we expect to see rotation back down to the lows, where we will be looking for the sellers to fail for a buying opportunities back up into the range once again. 


Most important thing right now on the FDAX is to stay out of the middle of this range, so look for traps and failures above the moving-average to avoid getting ‘chopped-up’ tomorrow.

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