Thursday, June 8, 2017

Trading the Fake-Out Breakout | Crude Oil, Emini, Gold, Euro, FDAX



“Life is not about ALL the wrong moves you made; Life is about the one right move that made ALL the difference.”  - James Lockhart


Crude Oil is range-bound after the sellers rejected lower prices this morning, so the plan is to buy low, sell high, and focus on failures until we see a successful breakout-pullback tomorrow.

S&P is range-bound, which tells us to buy the low, sell the high, avoid the middle, and focus on failures tomorrow ahead of contract rollover.

Gold is bearish with a flag this evening, which tells us to sell the high of the flag, or look for buyer-failures as price moves back towards the low.

Euro is bearish with a Spike & Range this evening, which tells us to look for traps and failures up in the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.

FDAX is range-bound with a bullish bias tonight, which tells us to use the '2-Try Rule' looking for seller-failures below the range lows tomorrow.


Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is range-bound and sitting right on yesterday’s low, telling us that sellers have rejected lower prices from earlier today.  The Trading-Range tells us to buy the low, sell the high, and focus on failures.  We’re also keep an eye on the prior week low, which is a good distance away, but always on our radar as we finish the week tomorrow.

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is range-bound in the same range from earlier this week, so the plan hasn’t changed; buy the low, sell the high, avoid the middle, and focus on failures until we see a successful breakout-pullback.  We’re still watching for Contract Rollover tomorrow as well, so watch the volume on the 09-17 contract and move when the volume exceeds the 06-17 contract.  One thing to keep an eye on tomorrow is the prior week high, which is always a price-magnet as we go into the end of the week.

Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is bearish, but the bulls are on the verge of taking control of this market… all they need to do is hold this next pullback.  This strong move down is looking like a bear flag, which means sellers are selling into this move higher, with a target going back to the lows.  One thing to keep in mind is that Double-Down is higher than the low-of-day, which means the sellers will need to sell through the Double-Down to re-test the lows, which is always an open invitation for the buyers to grab control if the sellers fail.

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is bearish, but ended the session in a range, which tells us to look for selling-opportunities up above the range high, and avoid trying to trade the breakout to new lows tomorrow.  The plan for tomorrow is to use the '2-Try Rule' with buyer-failures above the range high, and use the fake-out breakout pullback if we see bearish strength to new lows.  One thing to keep an eye on tomorrow is the prior week high, which is an easy target if the bulls lose their grip and the buyers can take this higher tomorrow.

FDAX Trading Strategy

FDAX is range-bound with a bull-bias this evening, which tells us the most reliable buying opportunities will be using traps and failures below the low of the range tomorrow.  The plan for tomorrow is to use the '2-Try Rule' for seller-failures below the low of the range, and using the fake-out breakout pullback if we see bullish strength through the highs.

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