Tuesday, June 27, 2017

“Spike” Trading Strategy | Crude Oil, Emini, Gold, Euro, FDAX



“The best way to predict the future is to create it.”  – Joseph James


Crude Oil is bearish with a strong ‘spike’ lower this evening, which tells us to look for one of four scenarios ahead of the Inventory Report.

S&P is bearish with a wedge, which we will use to find selling-opportunities inside the ‘battle zone’ with a measured-move target tomorrow.

Gold is bearish and trying to finish the move back into yesterday’s range, and we have a short-term bull flag telling us where to look for failures tomorrow.

Euro is bullish with a Spike & Channel this evening, telling us to look for traps and seller-failures below the moving-average for a “triple-up” target tomorrow.

FDAX is bearish and trying to finish off a measured-move target tomorrow, and the moving-average tells us exactly where to be looking for the best trading opportunities.


Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is bearish after this afternoon’s API Report sent prices collapsing off the highs with what we expect to be a Spike & Channel, or some variation of that tomorrow. 

The goal for sellers is to look for a ‘2-legged correction’ or a buyer-failure just above the moving-average for a target going back down to the low, while watching for this spike to develop into a channel, wedge, range, or flag tomorrow.

Crude Oil Inventory Levels for Wednesday:
45.04, 44.62, 44.20, 43.78, 43.36, 42.94

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is bearish with a wedge as it tries to finish off a measured-move target and re-test the prior month high (which is a magnet as we go into the end of the month).   The wedge and measured-move both acts as our targets, and we’re getting very close, so we need to beware trying to chase the move lower.

The plan for tomorrow is to look for selling-opportunities up above prior swings in the ‘battle zone’ so we can ‘sell high’ with a target down at the measured-move.

Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is bearish and trying to finish the move back to yesterday’s low, and this potential ‘bull flag’ is giving us plenty of information to plan our trades tomorrow.  If this is a bull flag, the buyers will be focused on buying the low of the channel, or buying the pullback after a strong break higher, so the plan for selling is to look for those patterns to fail.

The goal is to look for buyer-failure above the channel, and a strong break down below the channel tomorrow, making sure we don’t chase the move lower into the middle of the triangle.

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is bullish with a runaway Spike & Channel this evening, which tells us to look for traps and seller-failures below the moving-average with a target going back up to re-test the high tomorrow. 

One level that stands out for tomorrow is the prior month high, which will be a great support level if we can get a deep enough pullback tomorrow.

FDAX Trading Strategy
FDAX is bearish and trying to complete channel rotation and a measured-move target tomorrow.  The most important clue on this chart is the separation away from the moving-average. 


We can see the bears are quite strong right now, almost too strong, so the plan is to look for selling-opportunities after a pullback to the moving-average, perhaps all the way up in the ‘battle zone’, for a target going down to the measured-move tomorrow.

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