Thursday, June 29, 2017

Pullback or Reversal? | Crude Oil, Emini, Gold, Euro, FDAX



“Take the first step in faith. You don’t have to see the whole staircase, just take the first step.”


Crude Oil is bearish with a Spike & Wedge, so we’re looking for selling-opportunities using prior swings, while keeping an eye on a possible reversal because of one big clue we see from earlier today.

S&P is bearish and trying to re-test today’s low, but a key support level is standing in the way, so we’re looking to ‘sell high’ with failures up in the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.

Gold is bearish with a Trading-Range, but a key level of support is telling us the only real option is to look for failures up in the ‘battle zone’, with a clear window of opportunity for the bulls to take control.

Euro is bearish and trying to reach the 15,000 round-number, but we have a major resistance level getting in the way, so we’re looking for a ‘2-legged pullback’ off the highs to avoid buying into this resistance.

FDAX is bearish with a Spike & Channel, so we’re staying patient for traps and failures up in the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.


Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is bearish with a Spike & Wedge, and trying to re-test the prior month low and complete a measured-move tomorrow.

The Spike & Wedge tells us to look for selling-opportunities up above prior swings, while avoiding the fake-out breakout at the completion of the wedge.

One thing that stands out on this chart is that we’re trading at today’s low, and the candlestick wicks are telling us to watch for buyer strength and a possible re-test of today’s high if the sellers can’t hold.

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is bearish and trading with a channel, which is looking to re-test the low tomorrow, but the prior month high will likely cause some problems. 

This move back above the moving-average isn’t strong enough to be considered a trend-reversal, so the plan is to look for traps and failures up in the ‘battle zone’ so we don’t need to sell into the prior month high.

We also want to keep an eye on a possible reversal tomorrow, which requires the buyers to show more proof on strength, and then hold a pullback for a move back up to the day’s high.

Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is bearish with a Trading-Range, which tells us to look for selling-opportunities using the '2-Try Rule' above the high of the range. 

We can also see the prior week low is just below the range, telling us to avoid the fake-out breakout if price tries to push lower, which also gives the bulls a chance to take control if they can get some strength going higher tomorrow.

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is bullish and trying to finish rotation to the high of a large bull channel, but this measured-move is standing in the way.  The measured-move is the market’s objective, so we don’t want to buy here. 

The plan for tomorrow is to look for reliable buying opportunities after a ‘2-legged pullback’ into the ‘battle zone’ with a target going back to the measured-move, and a runner to round number at 15,000.

FDAX Trading Strategy
FDAX is bearish with a Spike & Channel, which tells us to consider this market ‘oversold’ and look for more reliable selling-opportunities up at resistance levels overhead. 


The plan for tomorrow is to avoid the prior month low, looking for traps and failures up around the ‘battle zone’, while avoiding the temptation to chase the move lower.

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