Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Channel “Overshoot” Strategy | Crude Oil, Emini, Gold, Euro, FDAX

“Life is 10% what happens to us and 90% how we react to it.”  - Dennis P. Kimbro

Crude Oil is bearish, but a “double-overshoot” of the channel low tells us to wait for the most reliable selling-opportunities up at the ‘battle zone’ waiting overhead.

S&P is range-bound with a bear-bias as sellers keep rejecting lower prices, and our plan is to sell above the range high using buyer-failures tomorrow.

Gold is bullish with a ‘grind-break’ channel, so we’re looking for traps in the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow on the way to yesterday’s high.

Euro is bullish with a wedge, so we’re looking for a ‘2-legged pullback’ off the highs for the next round of buying opportunities tomorrow.

FDAX is range-bound with a bear-bias, so we’re looking for buyer-failures using the '2-Try Rule' up above the high of the range tomorrow.

Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is bearish with a “double-overshoot” of the channel lows, which tells us to expect a rather significant correction higher before we find sellers re-enter the market with their targets back at the low.  

One thing that stands out on this chart is the multiple levels of resistance from the prior day low, 43.03 reversal-line, and measured-move.  Those levels of resistance will make for an easy target for the short-term bulls and excellent place to ‘sell high’ for the long-term bears.

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is range-bound with a bear-bias and sitting on yesterday’s low, which tells us that sellers are rejecting the idea of lower prices, but the bulls haven’t been able to take control yet.  This tells us that sellers will gladly sell up above the range tomorrow, but they will reject selling below the range until we see proof.  

The plan is to sell the high of the range with buyer-failures, and if you have a taste for risk, look to buy the lows with seller-failures using the '2-Try Rule' tomorrow.

Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is bullish with a channel and ‘grind-break’ this evening, which tells us to avoid chasing this move higher, and look for a pullback into the ‘battle zone’ on the way to a measured-move target tomorrow.   

One thing that stands out on this chart is today’s high, as well as the prior day high, which is the current objective for the bulls.  As price keeps pushing higher, we want to avoid buying into these resistance levels and focus on traps tomorrow.

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is bullish with a Spike & Channel or possible wedge this evening, which tells us to look for a pullback to support levels for a re-test of the high.  

The most important levels of support appear to be the rising trend-line and the reversal-line around the ‘battle zone’, which would most likely include a ‘2-legged pullback’ or a seller-failure below the moving-average tomorrow.

FDAX Trading Strategy

FDAX is range-bound with a bear-bias this evening, which tells us to look for selling-opportunities up above the range using the '2-Try Rule' and buyer-failures with a target going back to re-test today’s low.  

If price pushes lower, the plan is to avoid ‘selling low’ and look for traps and ‘2-legged corrections’ off the lows to continue following this trend lower to a runner target at the prior week low.

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