Tuesday, May 2, 2017

FOMC Trading Strategy | Crude Oil, Emini, Gold, Euro, FDAX - 05/02/17



“If you do what you’ve always done, you’ll get what you’ve always gotten.  Life doesn’t get better by chance, it gets better by CHANGE.”


Crude Oil is getting tossed around the chart today as news from OPEC and API sent prices in both directions… giving us trading opportunities on both sides setting-up for tomorrow.

S&P is range-bound with a triangle, telling us to look for failures around the edges of the range, buying low, selling high, and avoiding the middle until we see a successful breakout-pullback tomorrow.

Gold is bullish and trying to complete a “v-bottom”, but the bulls lack conviction, which is a BIG tip of the hat to the sellers looking for a re-test of the lows tomorrow.

Euro is bullish, but we’re trading at the high of a “bow-tie” pattern, which tells us to look for the buyers to fail, and selling-opportunities back down to the opposite side of the range.

FDAX is bullish with a strong push higher today, but we’re trading at two major resistance levels, which tells us to avoid ‘buying high’ and look for a ‘2-legged pullback’ to buy down near the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow.


Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is bullish in the short-term… and bearish in the long-term as price collapsed just after lunch on news from OPEC… and then rebounded on the API report just before the end of today’s session.  

The bears have a Spike & Channel, telling them to wait for a correction off the lows for selling-opportunities back down to re-test the low.  The bulls on the other hand… they have a support trend-line and a strong move higher to work with.  

The bears want to sell high, but this move is too strong to fade at this point, so the best option is to get below the support trend-line and use that as resistance for a ‘2-legged correction’ back down to the lows.  

Buyers on the other hand… will be looking for something similar… a ‘2-legged pullback’ of their own to avoid buying high.

Crude Oil Inventory Levels for Wednesday: 
48.59, 48.28, 47.97, 47.66, 47.35, 47.04

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is range-bound and trading in the middle of a triangle ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC Report.  

Triangles are exactly like trading-ranges… focus on failures at the edges of the range… buy the low, sell the high, and avoid the middle… waiting for a successful breakout-pullback that define a new trend for us tomorrow.

Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is bullish and trying to complete a “v-bottom” back to today’s high, but the bulls don’t appear to have much conviction, barely staying above the moving-average… 

which tells us this is likely just a short-covering-rally after yesterday’s big push lower… and keeping us ready to look for additional selling-opportunities as soon as the trend turns back again tomorrow.  

The buyers do have short-term control, and this measured-move is an easy target, but we need to see if the bulls can hold and push through these highs before we buy anything into the highs tomorrow.

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is bullish, but trading at the high of an inverted triangle (bow-tie), just a few ticks below the measured-move tells us to beware buying these highs and look for selling-opportunities going back to the opposite side of the range tomorrow.  

The bulls finished the session with a strong push higher, and this support trend-line will likely keep sellers away, until we can get below the trend-line and use it as resistance for an opportunity to sell the highs with a target down at the low.

FDAX Trading Strategy

FDAX is bullish, trading at a measured-move and the high of a bull channel this evening.  The bulls made a strong move higher to finish today’s session, which will likely be seen as a great place to take profit and look for buying opportunities at a lower price tomorrow.  

For that reason, our plan is to look for a ‘2-legged pullback’ and buying opportunities down around the ‘battle zone’ tomorrow for a re-test of the highs.

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