Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Trading with Ranges | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 04/18/17



“I discovered a long time ago that if I helped people get what they wanted, I would always get what I wanted and I would never have to worry.”


Crude Oil is bearish, sitting at the prior week low, trying to complete a measured-move target ahead of tomorrow’s Inventory Report. 

E-Mini S&P is bearish with a triangle, channel, and trading-range on the chart this evening, giving us plenty to work with tomorrow. 

Gold is bullish with a spike & channel and trading-range this evening, which gives us two (2) scenarios to consider tomorrow. 

Euro is bullish with a spike & channel, but we haven’t seen a pullback since early this morning, which tells us to look for a ‘2-legged correction’ back to support levels for the next round of buying opportunities. 

FDAX is bearish with a spike & channel, but we’re sitting ‘four legs down’, right on top of a round number, so the plan is to look for better selling-opportunities up at resistance levels overhead. 


Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude Oil is bearish, sitting at the prior week low, trying to complete a measured-move target ahead of tomorrow’s Inventory Report.  The bears have control, but one thing that stands out on this chart is that sellers didn’t enter the market until price was above the moving-average, telling us that this previous week low is likely being used as a short-term ‘floor’ and we need to avoid selling low tomorrow.  The goal will be to use traps and failures above the moving-average to keep ‘selling high’, even if price pushes lower.

Inventory Levels for Wednesday:  53.73, 53.40, 53.05, 52.70, 52.35, 52.00

E-Mini S&P Trading Strategy
E-Mini S&P is bearish with a triangle, channel, and trading-range on the chart this evening, giving us plenty to work with tomorrow.  The S&P clearly got tossed around like a ragdoll today, and whenever we have a situation like this I always like to go back to the basics.  Who has control, and where is the objective?  The bears have control, and the objective is a re-test of the measured-move, with the potential for the 'double-down' tomorrow.

Gold Trading Strategy
Gold is bullish with a spike & channel and trading-range this evening, which gives us two (2) scenarios to consider tomorrow.  First, the range tells us to buy the lows with failures, and look for a fake-out breakout pullback at the highs.  Second, the spike & channel tells us to wait for a deep correction to prior support levels, using a ‘2-legged correction’ for a move back to re-test the high.  No matter what happens, the target for the bulls is the prior day high, which lines up easily with the Double-Up off this bullish spike we saw shortly after 10am EST this morning.

Euro Trading Strategy
Euro is bullish with a spike & channel, just a few points below the major resistance level at the quadruple-up target overhead.  The bulls have clear control, but we haven’t seen a pullback in a while, so we assume there are a lot of buyers waiting for a correction, so we’re watching previous levels of support and staying patient.  One thing to keep in mind for tomorrow is that the first pullback will likely be a trap, so stay patient and look for a ‘2-legged correction’ to support levels for the most reliable buying opportunities tomorrow.

FDAX Trading Strategy

FDAX is bearish with a spike & channel, and sitting on the quadruple-down support level this evening, telling us to avoid selling ‘low’ and look for selling-opportunities up at resistance levels overhead.  The bears made a strong run lower today, four legs down, and all the way back to the 12,000 round number.  There are a few options for the spike & channel on the chart, but the quad-down tells the whole story; this market is too low to sell, so wait for a better place up at resistance.

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