Monday, April 3, 2017

Trading the Fake-Out Breakout | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 04/03/17

“The meeting of preparation and opportunity generates the offspring we call luck.”

Crude Oil is bearish as it tries to re-test the $50 round number, but we have a support trend-line on the chart that gives both the bears and the bulls opportunities tomorrow.

S&P is bullish with a wedge target tomorrow, but the most important clue is the recent change of control, which tells us to be looking for a trap tomorrow.

Gold is bullish, and a short-term trading-range is the most important clue going into Tuesday’s session.

Euro is bearish, and a resistance trend-line overhead will make for an excellent location to ‘sell high’ with a target down at the measured-move tomorrow.

FDAX is bearish and trying to re-test the triple-down target tomorrow, but the recent bullish correction is the most important clue going into tomorrow’s session.

We’re back in the saddle again after a short break last week with a new week, new month, and plenty of new trading opportunities setting-up for Tuesday.

Crude Oil
Crude Oil is bearish and trying to re-test today’s low, but this rising support trend-line is not only making the job more difficult, its opening the door for the buyers to grab control tomorrow.   The sellers only have two options to avoid this trend-line; they can sell higher up in the ‘battle zone’, or they can wait for a break down below the measured-move and look for a trap.  The buyers on the other hand, need to see these sellers walk away from this market and then hold a pullback, for a target going back up to re-test today’s high and most likely fill the weekend gap they missed earlier in today’s session.

E-Mini S&P
E-Mini S&P is bullish and trading into a measured-move as it tries to complete a wedge target tomorrow.  The bulls took control after the sellers failed to hold the most recent correction, and whenever we have a change in trend we always look for the ‘trap’ as the most reliable trading opportunity.  Buyers will be looking for opportunities to ‘buy low’ using prior swings and the ‘battle zone’ below.  If price pushes higher overnight, the key will be to avoid buying the breakout, and stay patient for the fake-out breakout pullback with a target up the wedge tomorrow.

Gold is bullish with a spike & range this evening, which tells us to look for buying opportunities above and below the range tomorrow.  Below the range, we’re looking for traps and failures with a target going back to the high.  Above the range, we want to avoid ‘buying high’ with a breakout, so our best option is to look for a fake-out breakout pullback with a target at the quadruple-up waiting overhead.

Euro is bearish and trading into a resistance trend-line, which will give the bears an excellent place to ‘sell high’ with a target going back down to the measured-move tomorrow.  On the flip side, this recent bullish correction looks strong enough for the buyers to take control, but they will need to get and hold above the trend-line before anyone trusts this move going higher tomorrow.


FDAX is bearish with an overshoot of a channel this evening, which explains this bullish correction, and tells us to be look for selling-opportunities using buyer-failures and traps for a target going back to re-test the low tomorrow. 

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