Thursday, April 13, 2017

Price Wedge Trading Strategy | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 04/13/17



“Goals are a means to an end, not the ultimate purpose of our lives. They are simply a tool to concentrate our focus and move us in a direction. The only reason we really pursue goals is to cause ourselves to expand and grow. Achieving goals by themselves will never make us happy in the long term; it’s who you become, as you overcome the obstacles necessary to achieve your goals, that can give you the deepest and most long-lasting sense of fulfillment.”


Crude Oil is bearish and trying to re-test yesterday’s low, but this recent re-test of a spike & channel has a big wick at the bottom, telling us to avoid chasing this move lower, and look for traps and failures up at resistance levels tomorrow. 

E-Mini S&P is bearish with a wedge this evening, which tells us to look for selling-opportunities at resistance levels using ‘traps’ and ‘2-legged corrections’ with a target down at last month’s low. 

Gold is bullish and trying to finish off a ‘pendulum swing’ and measured-move tomorrow, but we’re trading at yesterday’s high, and the top of a range, so we need to see PROOF before we try buying this breakout.  

Euro is bearish and trying to re-test yesterday’s low after the bulls failed to hold the move from yesterday afternoon’s rally.  

FDAX is bearish and trading at the low of a spike & channel, which tells us to look for selling-opportunities up at resistance levels waiting overhead. 

We’re headed into a ‘half-session’ tomorrow, but that won’t stop us from identifying some reliable trading opportunities ahead of the Easter/Passover weekend.


Crude Oil
Crude Oil is bearish and trying to re-test yesterday’s low, but this recent re-test of a spike & channel has a big wick at the bottom, telling us to avoid chasing this move lower, and look for traps and failures up at resistance levels tomorrow.  Just as we anticipated from last night’s newsletter, the bulls had control for the first half of the session today, then the break of the key trend-line sent prices collapsing lower.  The measured-move and prior low of day are easy targets for the bears, we just need to make sure we don’t get caught ‘selling low’ tomorrow.

E-Mini S&P
E-Mini S&P is bearish with a wedge this evening, which tells us to look for selling-opportunities at resistance levels using ‘traps’ and ‘2-legged corrections’ with a target down at last month’s low.  One thing that stands out on this chart is the prior week low (36.75), which we know will be a possible magnet if these sellers fail to hold the next retracement.  Watch for a strong move higher for proof that the sellers have failed, and then use the prior week low as a target for the rest of the session.

Gold
Gold is bullish and trying to finish off a ‘pendulum swing’ and measured-move tomorrow, but we’re trading at yesterday’s high, and the top of a range, so we need to see PROOF before we try buying this breakout.   The goal is to ‘buy low’ tomorrow, which means we want to look for traps if price pushes higher, and failures if price rotates back to the low of the range.

Euro
Euro is bearish and trying to re-test yesterday’s low after the bulls failed to hold the move from yesterday afternoon’s rally.  The bears have control, and we want to sell, but we don’t want to sell into the 'quadruple-down' support, so we’re looking for a strong break through support, or a rotation back up to the possible range high for opportunities to ‘sell high’ tomorrow.

FDAX

FDAX is bearish and trading at the low of a spike & channel, which tells us to look for selling-opportunities up at resistance levels waiting overhead.  Two things that stand out on this chart; first, we haven’t seen a correction in the last two sessions, and we assume sellers are patiently waiting up in the ‘battle zone’ for the opportunity to sell at a higher price.  Second, last week’s low at 42.0 will be an easy price-magnet tomorrow as we finish up the week, so look for selling-opportunities ABOVE that level to use it as a target.

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