Monday, April 10, 2017

How to Avoid ‘Chasing’ the Move | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 04/10/17



“When you temporarily run aground, remember that there are no failures in life. There are only results. Consider the adage: Success is the result of good judgment, good judgment is the result of experience, and experience is often the result of bad judgment.”


Crude Oil is bullish and trying to finish a measured-move this evening, which tells us the bulls are getting close to their target and we should avoid buying high, focusing on bear trap and failures. 

S&P is trading inside a range this evening, which tells us the most reliable trading opportunities will be at the highs and lows of the range, avoiding the temptation to trade the middle. 

Gold is bullish with a channel this evening, which tells us the most reliable buying opportunities will be at the low of the channel.

Euro is bullish with a channel this evening, which tells us to the most reliable buying opportunities will be at the low of the channel.

FDAX is bearish with a spike & range this evening, which tells us the most reliable selling-opportunities will come above the high of the range tomorrow. 



Crude Oil
Crude Oil is bullish and trying to finish a measured-move this evening, which tells us the bulls are getting close to their target and we should avoid buying high, focusing on bear trap and failures.  The bulls started with a channel this morning, they successfully re-tested the high, held a pullback, and now their hunting for the measured-move.  If price goes higher, we don’t want to chase, so keep looking for ways to buy low.  If price goes lower, we will be looking for ways to use support levels on the chart for reliable buying opportunities.

E-Mini S&P
E-Mini S&P is trading inside a range this evening, which tells us the most reliable trading opportunities will be at the highs and lows of the range, avoiding the temptation to trade the middle.  If price rises higher, sellers will be looking for buyers to try and fail, with a target going back to re-test the low.  If price falls lower, buyers will be looking for the sellers to try and fail, with a target going back up to the range high.  A range-breakout would require a successful breakout-pullback to the highs or lows, that is strong enough to make it clear that this range has broken down tomorrow.

Gold
Gold is bullish with a channel this evening, which tells us the most reliable buying opportunities will be at the low of the channel, and below prior swings below the low of the channel.  The ‘Double-Up’ resistance levels is considered resistance at this time.  If price pushes higher, we don’t want to buy high, so we will look for a bear-trap.  If price moves lower, we assume the channel overshoot was a little too strong earlier in the session, and will look for a move back down to re-test the low.  Targets for the bulls are up to the high, with a runner at the measured-move.

Euro
Euro is bullish with a channel this evening, which tells us to the most reliable buying opportunities will be at the low of the channel, and below prior swings below the channel.  This recent pullback allowed the buyers to ‘buy low’, and if price continues to push higher, we want to avoid buying into the high, and use the resistance trend-line for a breakout-pullback.  If price moves lower, we have to assume something has gone wrong for the bulls, and look for a collapse back into the range at yesterday’s low.  Targets for the bulls are up to the highs, with a runner target at the measured-move tomorrow.

FDAX

FDAX is bearish with a spike & range this evening, which tells us the most reliable selling-opportunities will come above the high of the range tomorrow.  If price pushes higher, we’re looking for bull traps and failures.  If price pushes lower, we don’t want to sell the low, so we will wait for a strong break down, then look for a fake-out breakout pullback with the proper confirmation from the moving-average.  Targets for the sellers will be the measured-move and the prior day low. 

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