Thursday, March 23, 2017

Trading with Ranges on Friday | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 03/23/17

“We must all suffer one of two things: the pain of discipline or the pain of regret and disappointment.”

Crude Oil is bearish, but we’re sitting at the low of a range this evening, which tells the sellers to stay patient for selling-opportunities up at the highs, or a successful breakout-pullback through the lows tomorrow.

S&P is bearish, but trading inside a short-term range this evening, which means we’re looking for traps above the highs, while avoiding the fake-out breakout at the lows tomorrow.

Gold is bearish, but we have two (2) support levels keeping the sellers from getting too aggressive, so the plan is to wait for proof for the run down to the measured-move target at 37.7 tomorrow.

Euro is range-bound with a bear-bias this evening, which means our plan is simple for tomorrow; sell the high, avoid the middle, and avoid the fake-out breakout.

FDAX is bullish, but a large overshoot of a channel, combined with two levels of resistance are giving the sellers a window of opportunity tomorrow, but we need proof before we can act.

We’re ready to wrap-up what has been an incredible week of trading in our trade room and on this newsletter.  Friday’s session is right around the corner, and we have a reliable trading strategy for all of our favorite markets.

Crude Oil
Crude Oil is bearish and trading at the low of a trading-range this evening, which tells us to look for selling-opportunities up above the highs (inside the ‘battle zone’), or a successful breakout-pullback below the lows, making sure to get clear confirmation that sellers are looking for the run down to the measured-move and previous day’s low around $47 tomorrow.

E-Mini S&P
E-Mini S&P is bearish and trying to re-test yesterday’s low at 32.25, but we’re sitting on the measured-move right now, waiting for the opportunity to either sell up in the ‘battle zone’ or below this range with a successful breakout-pullback.  The bears finished the session with a strong move lower, into a trading-range, so we want to sell the high if possible, and be sure to avoid the fake-out breakout as we try to make new lows.

Gold is bearish and trying to re-test today’s low, but we have a short-term measured-move and Double-Down keeping the sellers from being too aggressive at this time.    This is going to be a tough situation to trade tomorrow; We clearly want to be sellers, but we don’t want to sell this low, so if we get another opportunity to sell high, we will certainly be interested.  The challenge will come down at the lows, where we need to see a LOT of strength through the lows in order to confirm this market want to make a run to the major measured-move and possible last week’s high at 34.0.

Euro is range-bound with a bear-bias this evening, sitting right on top of last week’s high as we go into Friday’s session.  It’s important to remember, as we go into a Friday session, the previous week highs and lows become important price-magnets, which will certainly boost confidence for range traders tomorrow.  The plan is quiet simple tomorrow; sell the high of the range using buyer-failures, avoid the middle, and beware the fake-out breakout at the lows.


FDAX is bullish, but with this big overshoot of the channel, and multiple levels of resistance overhead, the buyers really need to see some PROOF before they keep buying these highs.  With that said, this overshoot, combined with the falling resistance trend-line will certainly give the sellers some confidence trying to fade this move, so we will be watching both sides going into Friday.  First, the bulls need to re-test the high to give us confirmation that they can hold this pullback.  Second, if the bulls cannot re-test the high, it will be seen a major blow to their confidence, and price will almost surely collapse back down to the low of the channel, which is conveniently at the 12,000-round number.

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