Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Don’t Miss these Trend Lines | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 02/01/17



“You cannot change your destination overnight, but you can change your direction immediately.  All it takes is the desire to change and the decision to make it happen.”

Crude Oil is bearish after the bulls appear to have taken profit after a wild reaction to this afternoon’s FOMC Announcement. 

E-Mini S&P is bearish with a flag pattern this evening which tells us that sellers are focusing on ‘traps’ above previous swings. 

Gold is bullish and trading at a measured-move after price ‘V-Bottomed’ off the $1200 round number ahead of today’s FOMC Announcement. 

Euro is bearish and trying to re-test the low, but the buyers are coming off a strong reaction to this afternoon’s FOMC Announcement and have the potential to take control if they can hold this pullback. 

FDAX is bearish and trying to fill the gap left open from last night’s close, but a rising support trend-line is standing in the way, which will give the bulls the opportunity to grab control if they can show us some strength.


Crude Oil
Crude Oil is bearish after the bulls appear to have taken profit after a wild reaction to this afternoon’s FOMC Announcement.  The bulls had control for most of the session today, but the day finish on a climactic note for the bulls, and we now expect to see the bears go hunting for a move back down to support levels waiting below.  The key for tomorrow will be this rising trend-line on the chart; assuming the bear continue this move lower, we will be cautious not to sell into that key area of support, looking for ways to ‘sell high’ if and when we get there.  The buyers, on the other hand, did have a very strong move this afternoon, but this collapse off the high tells us we need to see the buyers show some strength here right now before we will go looking for a move up to last week’s high.

E-Mini S&P
E-Mini S&P is bearish with a flag pattern this evening which tells us that sellers are focusing on ‘traps’ above previous swings, and at the same time is giving the bulls a chance to take control if they can show us some strength.  That rising support trend-line is the key right now; the bears have control, but they don’t want to sell into support, so they are being patient, taking trades off new highs, and then looking for the bottom to fall out of this so they can sell the breakout-pullback below the ‘No Trade Zone’.  The buyers on the other hand, can easily take control, all they need is to show us some strength, which may be easy if the sellers run out of bullets tomorrow.

Gold
Gold is bullish and trading at a measured-move after price ‘V-Bottomed’ off the $1200 round number ahead of today’s FOMC Announcement.  This is quite the interesting chart this evening; the bulls have control, but you can clearly see how much stronger the bears were on the way down, compared to the bulls on the way up, which tells us this may be nothing more than a pullback to allow the sellers to sell it back down again.  We can also see that the bulls have a measured-move right at the same location as the ‘breakout point’ of the V-Bottom, which tells us that buyers will be looking for a strong push through the ‘No Trade Zone’ for a continuation up to last week’s high, but if they fail, this price can easily change hands and run back to $1200 tomorrow.

Euro
Euro is bearish and trying to re-test the low, but the buyers are coming off a strong reaction to this afternoon’s FOMC Announcement and have the potential to take control if they can hold this pullback.  As choppy as the chart looks, the bears have control, and with price clearing below the rising support trend-line, the sellers will be looking for this pullback to fail for a move back down to re-test the low and possibly a larger measured-move tomorrow.  The buyers on the other hand, have been fighting off the sellers, who have been selling into each push higher, and they can take control if they can show us they really want this by holding this pullback for a move back up to re-test yesterday’s high.

FDAX

FDAX is bearish and trying to fill the gap left open from last night’s close, but a rising support trend-line is standing in the way, which will give the bulls the opportunity to grab control and finish the re-test of yesterday’s high that they missed earlier in today’s session.  The bears have control after a strong move off the highs, and after seeing the sellers keep selling into each move higher, we know that the bears are looking for ways to ‘sell high’ and avoid that rising support trend-line.  The key for the sellers will be traps up at the ‘battle zone’, or a successful breakout-pullback below the trend-line.  Buyers on the other hand, need to see some strength to the up-side if they want to take control and make a run back to yesterday’s high.

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