Thursday, December 1, 2016

Non-Farm Payrolls Friday Strategy | SchoolOfTrade Newsletter 12/01/16



“Would you like me to give you a formula for success? It’s quite simple, really; Double your rate of failure. You are thinking of failure as the enemy of success. But it isn’t at all. You can be discouraged by failure or you can learn from it, so go ahead and make mistakes. Make all you can. Because remember that’s where you will find success.”
Crude Oil is bearish in the short-term as buyers take their profit and price attempts to move back to the $50 round number tomorrow.

E-Mini S&P is bearish and trading at the high of a short-term trading-range with a target going back to re-test the lows. 

Gold is range-bound and rotating back to the highs of the range, where we assume that sellers will be waiting to use the '2-Try Rule' to sell the highs.

Euro is bullish, trading at the high of a narrow bull channel, and trying to finish a measured-move target tomorrow.

FDAX is bearish and trading at the end of a bear wedge, which tells the sellers to stay patient for counter-trend ‘traps’ and ‘failures’ at the resistance levels waiting overhead.


Crude Oil is bearish in the short-term as buyers take profit and price rotates off the high of a long-term bull channel on the way back to the $50 round number.  The bears have a strong move lower, and with the resistance trend-line keeping buyers away from buying this pullback, they have a great short-term opportunity to sell the next pullback down into the ‘battle zone’ and the $50 level tomorrow.  With that said, we can’t forget about the bulls, who have dominated this market for the last 2 sessions in the wake of the OPEC meeting yesterday.  The buyers would love to buy this market down around the $50 level, and they need to be careful buying into the resistance trend-line for a move going back to re-test the highs.

E-Mini S&P is bearish and trading at the high of a short-term trading-range this evening with a target going back to re-test the lows.  The day started with a trading-range and then sellers took it lower to reach the Double-Down target before taking their profit and bouncing off the lows.  At this point we assume sellers are waiting for trading opportunities at the 92.50 reversal-line, and the 94.50 ‘battle zone’ for a move back to the lows.  Buyers, on the other hand, need to take control of this market before they can think about buying, which means they need a strong push higher, hold a pullback, and then look for buying opportunities going back to the range where today started.

Gold is range-bound and rotating back to the highs of the range this evening, where we assume that sellers will be waiting to use the '2-Try Rule' to sell the highs with a target back to the lows.  Our plan for trading a range is to sell the high, buy the low, avoid the middle, and focus on failures until we see a strong enough breakout that can hold a pullback and develop into a new trend tomorrow.

Euro is bullish, trading at the high of a narrow bull channel, and trying to finish a measured-move target this evening.  The bulls have control, and this strong move higher most likely left some buyers waiting for a deeper pullback, combined with the un-filled gap, we know the most reliable buying opportunities will be with counter-trend ‘traps’ and ‘failures’ for a target going up to the measured-move.  Once we get the measured-move, then we look for a trading-range and our focus will be to buy the low of the range for a move back to re-test the high.


FDAX is bearish and trading at the end of a bear wedge this evening which tells the sellers to stay patient for counter-trend ‘traps’ and ‘failures’ at the many resistance levels waiting above.  The bears have control, but they won’t be interested in selling at this support area, and if price pushes lower they need to beware selling into the measured-move, so the most reliable selling-opportunities will come after a bullish correction.  With that said, a bullish correction that is strong enough to hold a pullback will give the buyers control, and they will be looking for buying opportunities if they can hold a strong pullback above the 37.0 ‘battle zone’ low.

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